Trading on opportunities
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One
feels sorry about the recent tension between India and Pakistan across the line
of control not only due to the losses of precious lives on both side but also
due to the fact that such unfortunate incidents may ruin the nascent peace
process.
However,
it is heartening to note that tension is easing off and both the governments
still seem to continue working towards implementation of SAFTA through
bilateral trade normalisation. Last two years had witnessed a number of
promising developments on commercial relations between India and Pakistan. And
they have to be nurtured as against just crying over Pakistan’s decision to
delay the grant of Most-Favoured-Nation status to trade with India. Recent developments
show that Pakistan has provided de facto MFN to India. The Indian establishment
should look at a glass which is half full rather than looking at half empty
glass.
From
a narrow base of Positive List, Pakistan has decided to apply a broader Negative
List approach. As against earlier approach of allowing trade in just about
1,800 tariff lines, this base has increased to all product lines except about
1,200. In other words, earlier just over 20 per cent tariff lines (products)
were allowed for trade between India and Pakistan. Now, about 15 per cent are
barred from being traded — a new opportunity of trade potentiality in almost 65
per cent tariff lines. This was followed by a decision taken on the side of the
trade ministers’ meeting on South Asian Free Trade Agreement held in Islamabad
in early 2012.
Delegations
led by respective commerce ministers paid mutual visits and declared a series
of revitalizing steps, liberal business visa regime being the most notable one.
Traders benefitted from the commencement of an Integrated check post at the
Wagah-Attari border.
However,
there is fear that the momentum generated in the preceding years is running out
of steam, as implementation of some of the decisions is taking longer than
expected. It is misplaced as efforts at the governmental level are indeed
accounting and covering short-term shocks that may arise out of easing of trade
restrictions. At this juncture, what is to be pondered over is how stakeholder
groups other than governments can contribute to the latter’s initiatives at
normalising our trade relations.
While
tariffs are coming down, numerous non-tariff trade barriers (NTBs),
particularly procedural ones, are hindering our trade. Removal of such barriers
is now the key to foster Indo-Pak trade but what is lacking is a formal
institutional mechanism to do so. This gap can be plugged by active involvement
of the civil society.
An
initiative, supported by The Asia Foundation in which Sustainable Development
Policy Institute of Pakistan and CUTS International of India jointly
participate, has recently made inquiries into the extent of NTBs affecting
intra-regional trade in South Asia. It was observed that as much as 34.81 per
cent of the value of total intra-regional trade can be saved if South Asian
countries undertake some minimalistic reforms to harmonise, regulate and remove
NTBs by matching intra-regional trade conditions with that of ideal global
standards which are achievable. Our work has estimated that in case of Indo-Pak
trade NTBs are much above the South Asian average and accounts for about 43 per
cent of the value of total aggregate bilateral trade.
This
calls for a new approach as the current one on trade reforms suffers from a
number of inherent problems such as lack of clarity in the definition of NTBs,
fragmented policy responses towards NTBs, difficulties in quantifying costs and
benefits of reforms and subsequent problems related to incentives and
enforcements. Hence, disciplining NTBs remains sub-optimal. Non-inclusiveness
of relevant stakeholders in the process of reforming NTBs is a major
limitation. Many important NTBs even fail to get discussed as the directly
affected trading community has limited access to the official channels.
Greater
involvement of the private sector in the formal system of reforming NTBs and
related factors would strengthen the official initiatives by bridging data
deficiency and by building synergies between governmental establishments and
business organisations. Businesses possess first-hand information on trade
costs and potential alternatives to costly and ineffective trade regulations.
Direct inputs from them will make the reform process more informed and focused.
Besides
fostering transparency and efficiency, an inclusive and participatory approach
toward NTB reforms will also facilitate responsibility sharing, reducing some
burden on the governments. As the private sector gets involved in the process,
starting from identification of non-tariff barriers to implementation of
reforms, possibilities may be thrown up for public-private partnership in
financing reforms, a pressing concern with respect to trade facilitation
measures and improvement of trade infrastructure.
The
most important building block of such a participatory approach is mutual
consultation and consensus among various stakeholder groups such as government
officials, business associations, political groups including trade unions, and
consumer groups and other civil society and community-based organisations.
Academia and media are required to complement such efforts for collective
action.
Civil
society organizations should act as catalyst for dialogues among these
stakeholder groups. They are in a position to understand and analyse
socio-economic implications of enhanced bilateral economic integration,
particularly at local level and, thus, can potentially bridge macro-micro gaps
in policy-making process and its implementation. They can take lead in
awareness generation and anchor the dialogue process by providing appropriate
platforms. More importantly, as neutral enablers, they can find the sources and
reasons of resistance to the cause that may arise and help to defuse conflict
of interests among other stakeholder groups.
Creation
of any new or restructuring of old institutional and legal systems is not
required for empowering private stakeholders to deliver their respective roles
in this participatory approach. Article 3 (Objectives and Principles) and
Article 10 (Institutional Arrangements) of South Asia Free Trade Agreement have
adequate provisions for creating such a participatory system. As per these
provisions, businesses from South Asian countries can access the NTB resolution
authority under SAFTA through their membership in national level business and
trade associations, some of them are also members of the regional apex body —
Saarc Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
This
proposed approach should have an awareness generation component on the harmful
effects of NTBs on intra-regional trade — consumer and producer welfare and
revenue generation on the part of governments — and the urgency of addressing
them as well as the potential role businesses and other stakeholder groups can
and should play. Some recent initiatives to promote the involvement of private
sector and other stakeholders in trade liberalisation process in other regions
should be reviewed for designing appropriate modalities. The determination of
the civil society to grab opportunities offered by improved commercial
relations between the two neighbours will prevail if they stop waiting and take
proactive steps.