BC3 Seminars
“Linking bottom-up and top-down energy modeling in the framework of EIO analysis“
Prof. Dr. Kurt Kratena
Visiting PhD in Economics from the University of Economics and Business, Vienna
Director of the Centre of Economic Scenario Analysis and Research (CESAR) in Seville
Abstract:
We use the model framework developed by Guevara and others to set up an EIO model where the energy system is in great part driven by the energy services (or useful energy). These are modelled at the bottom-up level and are converted by ‘energy service production functions’ into demand for energy and other production factors (capital, labor, intermediates). The technology of producing the energy services therefore affects the economic IO part of the EIO model with important feedback effects. Traditional income rebound effects can additionally be covered. Private transport and heating of households are modelled at the bottom-up level and different service production technologies can be applied. Energy demand in production is determined by trends for energy efficiency and inter-fuel substitution. Electricity and heat generation are modelled at the bottom-up level of technologies and changes in technology mix shows important repercussions on the economic variables, as the aggregate technology of the electricity sector in the economic IO part of the EIO model is directly linked to the bottom-up data. The model can be used for scenario analysis and shows the energy and economic impact of energy and climate policy measures that operate at the energy service level.
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