| 来源类型 | Research Reports |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| Development of Integrated Land-Use Model to Support Climate Change Adaptation Policy, Part Ⅱ | |
| Oh Seok Kim | |
| 发表日期 | 2016-12-31 |
| 出版年 | 2016 |
| 语种 | 英语 ; Korean |
| 摘要 | The research presents land-change modeling outcomes for the year of 2100 that are based on two distinct scenarios, where they take into account both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The two scenarios are entitled “conservative” and “optimistic.” The conservative scenario portrays a business-as-usual situation and is modeled via Land Change Modeler (LCM). LCM is a analytical module embedded in TerrSet geospatial monitoring and modeling software, which has been developed and maintained by Clark Labs in the United States. The optimistic scenario depicts a more sustainable development (compared to the conservative scenario) and is modeled via Korea Environment Institute’s Integrated Land-Use Model (KEI-ILUM). KEI-ILUM integrates econometric modeling and geographic information science/systems (GIS) to simulate future land-use and land-cover change of South Korea. After the two scenarios are projected in a spatially explicit fashion the projections are overlaid with maps of heatwave and sea-level rise produced by KEI. Through the overlay, it is possible to identify which land-use type is more vulnerable to a specific climate change risk under a certain scenario. The conservative scenario shows more Built than the optimistic scenario, and consequently the optimistic scenario shows more Agriculture and Forest than the conservative scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, Built is less vulnerable to heatwave by approximately 30% compared to the conservative scenario. In the case of Agriculture, however, it is expected to be more vulnerable to heatwave by approximately 20% when the optimistic scenario is to be realized. Under the conservative scenario, it is more effective for Agriculture to be prepared for extreme weather and climate events, whereas it is more effective to be prepared for flood or salinization under the optimistic scenario. In the case of Forest, the results of the two scenarios are similar hence no distinct adaptation strategies seem necessary. In conclusion, there is no “better” scenario in terms of climate change adaptation because all scenarios are differently vulnerable to climate change risks. Thus, it is crucial to develop more scenarios and prepare strategies corresponding to those scenarios in pursuit of “better” climate change adaptation. |
| 来源智库 | Korea Evironment Institute (Republic of Korea) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/198222 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Oh Seok Kim. Development of Integrated Land-Use Model to Support Climate Change Adaptation Policy, Part Ⅱ. 2016. |
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| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| 기본_2016_18_ê¹ì（8717KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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