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On a cold, crisp Washington day, Donald Trump delivered a clear and short speech on the singular pursuit of asserting America’s primacy again. The speech lacked the soaring rhetoric of his predecessors and was admittedly dark at times but the President delivered the message with modest and assertive words.
Too often, inaugural addresses have soared so high that they didn’t connect with the heart, mind, and mood of the American people. They became merely stump speeches that were well understood by Washington’s establishment but rarely connected with millions of Americans.
A large number of Americans voted on November 8th, 2016, for change. They rejected the increasingly disconnected and dystopian universalism that President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton articulated time and time again as their jobs were being shipped overseas, as their communities faced increasing threats and violence, and their identity was being lost. Prosperity, freedom, and opportunity doesn’t come from purely leading in the international system, but from having a stable and prosperous base. On January 20th, President Trump delivered the message that fit this restless mood and importantly, addressed the core base that delivered him the White House. While President Trump didn’t win the popular vote, he swung the states needed for a commanding Electoral College victory.
President Trump sought to unite the country around a singular vision centered on American patriotism and nationalism. Simply put, his message was: it doesn’t matter who you are, where you are from, and who you voted for. What inherently matter are the common values that bind all Americans. Prosperity, freedom, and opportunity doesn’t come from purely leading in the international system, but from having a stable and prosperous base.
From porous borders to declining infrastructure to a large trade deficit to the threat of radical Islam, the US may have led globally, delivered prosperity both to Washington and its allies abroad, and spread its values abroad, but Washington, insulated in its own echo chamber, lost connection with the US’s first and foremost purpose: putting “America First.”
The post-World War II global order which allowed the US to thrive for over half a century had in equal parts growing vulnerabilities and unsustainable contradictions. President Trump sought in his inauguration to strategically disrupt this course.
While at times chaotic and very much a start-up in design, his rejection of conventional cabinet appointments, his distance from the Washington policy elite, his anti-intellectual style, and his embracing of unconventional ideas are attempts to set a new tone. The US (let alone Washington itself) won’t change if Washington remains the same.
Will President Trump succeed? While many writers and columnists from The Washington Post to The New York Times are waiting to pen the obituary of Trump’s presidency, it would be both short-sighted and counterproductive to count him out.
As Niall Ferguson has critically observed, the US, along with Britain, is living still in the populist aftermath waves of the 2008 financial crisis, which tore a gaping hole in the international system. The 2016 election underscored this both on the right and the left.
As Niall Ferguson has critically observed, the US, along with Britain, is living still in the populist aftermath waves of the 2008 financial crisis, which tore a gaping hole in the international system. The 2016 election underscored this both on the right and the left. The idea that this restless mood and desire for change will end with the fall of Donald Trump is a poor disservice to reality.
President Trump can succeed if he delivers opportunities and prosperity to many working-class Americans, from Wisconsin to Pennsylvania, who felt overlooked by Obama and Clinton. The focus of Trump’s presidency is whether or not he can deliver on his campaign message. The first 100 days will be a critical barometer for this.
A larger question is: in what direction is America going if Trump succeeds? A singular focus on “America First” at home may succeed in asserting America’s strength and prosperity, and rebalance the fortunes of many, but in doing so, the US may become isolated or irrelevant in the international system if America’s role in the world is not also carefully considered and tended to.
If Washington doesn’t support and deepen its alliances or becomes only erratically engaged globally, the US may become a self-reliant model for development and self-defense similar to Singapore but ultimately, not have the influence needed to shape the international system to its favor. Instead of the US reaping the benefits of global leadership, Beijing and Moscow may seek to rewrite the rules of the international system in their favor. In doing so, America, similar to Sparta, despite all of its strength at home, may ultimately become overwhelmed and lose to those around it.
The challenge then for the next four to eight years is not only how to deliver change at home, but ensure that America can use a newfound position of strength at home to shape the international system to its favor — so that in the long-term, America still remains first.
A singular focus on “America First” at home may succeed in asserting America’s strength and prosperity, and rebalance the fortunes of many, but in doing so, the US may become isolated or irrelevant in the international system if America’s role in the world is not also carefully considered and tended to.
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