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The election next month is by every standard a Blue Wave, even if the size of that wave is in question. Democrats will make sizable gains in the House, and are doing better in the Senate contests than the numbers of vulnerable seats would suggest, especially considering there are three times as many seats up held by Democrats than there are for Republicans.
And Democrats are also poised to pick up a number of governorships. The nature of the wave, with Democrats more intensely involved than in any recent election, will hit purple states like Virginia and even redder states like Florida. In both those cases, there is a drag for Republicans caused by poor candidates at the top of the ticket: Corey Stewart, the GOP candidate for Senate in Virginia, and Ron DeSantis, the gubernatorial candidate in Florida, may hurt their party and bring greater gains for Democrats in the House and for state offices.
But there is one giant anomaly in this election, and it is in two of the most brightly blue states in the nation, Maryland and Massachusetts. Both have Republican governors. By most standards, those governors would be among the most likely to be swept out of office in states where their party is in deep disfavor and their president is a millstone. But both Larry Hogan, Jr., in Maryland and Charlie Baker in Massachusetts appear poised to win reelection — and not just by a nose. Both are comfortably ahead. In fact, in the Real Clear Politics average, Hogan has a nearly 19 point lead over Democrat Ben Jealous, 54.5 percent to 35.8 percent, while Baker is leading his Democratic opponent Jay Gonzalez by a remarkable 60 percent to 25 percent.
What explains this? First is that both Hogan and Baker have been good governors — showing executive ability, excellent choice of supporting personnel, and solid programmatic performance. Second, both have avoided ideology and focused on pragmatic problem-solving, understanding that compromising, finding broad-based partnerships, and governing toward the center would and could work in states where the culture and the power centers require it. Third, governorships, like mayoral positions, are in most cases much less about ideology than they are about leadership and problem-solving; that is why in the past even bright red states like Montana and Wyoming have elected and sometimes re-elected competent Democrats as governors.
Fourth, neither Hogan nor Baker have felt any need or desire to pander to their own party’s power centers or to Donald Trump. To their credit, they have distanced themselves from Trump when his tweets, statements, and policies have been anathema to them (and to their states’ voters). To be sure, both have been helped by the fact that Republican primary voters in both Maryland and Massachusetts are not radical rightists — and those voters appreciate what it takes for Republicans to win in their states. Neither faced a competitive primary, and thus neither had a political need to tilt to the right.
In a better world, Hogan and Baker would be serious possibilities for national office. Indeed in another Republican Party, they would be on any short list. In this world, where the Republican Party is the Trump Party, neither would make it onto any list. And that says more about the GOP than it does about either governor.
Join the AEI Election Watch team on November 8 for lunch to discuss what happened and what it means. Click here for details.
In a different world, Hogan and Baker would be serious possibilities for national office. But in this world, where the Republican Party is the Trump Party, neither would make it onto any list.
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