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One week out and the uncertainties in the election are many, although the fundamentals are still, well, fundamental. Tops on the uncertainty front? The horrible series of events of the past week, which could mean more unforeseen events in the coming week. And those could cut either way.
We do know Donald Trump is trying desperately to dominate and change the frame of the election to his go-to issue, immigration. The jarring PR stunt of sending thousands of American troops to the Mexican border to block a caravan that is almost 1,000 miles away, consisting largely of women and children fleeing gun violence in Honduras and seeking asylum in the United States (something protected under international law), is the major sign; the declaration that he will flout the 14th Amendment of the Constitution and ban birthright citizenship is another. No doubt there will be more. His efforts have been reinforced by House Republican leaders like Kevin McCarthy and Paul Ryan (via his SuperPac) and by many candidates.
Those efforts, amplified by Fox and talk radio warnings of pestilence and crime by the caravan, could make a difference in turnout in red states and districts. But the Democrats’ substantial funding, and continued focus on health care and pre-existing conditions, along with the evidence in approval ratings that Trump’s response to the Florida bomb scares has hurt him, leave Democrats in a strong position to win a majority in the House. David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, perhaps the best analyst of House elections at both micro and macro levels, notes that there are a stunning 99 House seats in some level of play, far more than there were in 2014, the last wave midterm. And at the micro level, if Democrats simply split the seats that are in the tossup category — which, given past waves, would be a deeply disappointing outcome for them — they would still have a majority.
The Senate, of course, is a different matter. Here, the Trump and Republican efforts to gin up turnout could make a difference in several red states where Democratic incumbents are trying to hold on — places like North Dakota, Montana, Indiana, and Missouri, and in a state like Tennessee where Democrat Phil Bredesen is trying to take Republican Bob Corker’s open seat. Democrats still have chances to pick up red Senate seats in Nevada, Arizona, and Texas, where Ted Cruz’s lead appears to be shrinking some. And the hurricane on the Florida Panhandle, a Republican area, followed by another FEMA debacle, could add to Bill Nelson’s chances of retaining his seat. But the map suggests that Democrats are more likely to lose a seat or two net than to pick up a net gain.
Just as interesting and also quite important are the state races, both for governor and offices like secretary of state. Here, the map and numbers favor Democrats and the net gains could be substantial. The two gubernatorial contests being watched most closely, of course, are Florida and Georgia: African-American Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum and African-American longtime state legislative leader Stacey Abrams would make history if elected. In Georgia, the big question is whether Republican nominee Brian Kemp, the top election official in the state, can get away with blatant voter suppression aimed at African-Americans. The same question actually faced Kansas, where Republican Kris Kobach, the veteran Secretary of State chastised by the courts for voter suppression, has been repudiated by prominent Republicans like longtime Senator Nancy Landon Kassebaum. There, a tossup race has been muddied by election chicanery from Kobach allies.
Add in the substantial number of state legislative chambers either up for grabs, or where veto-proof majorities could be erased, and Election Day next Tuesday will have more interesting and important races at stake than any I can remember.
Join the AEI Election Watch team on November 8 for lunch to discuss what happened and what it means. Click here for details.
Between control of Congress and the substantial number of state legislative chambers up for grabs, Election Day next Tuesday will have more interesting and important races at stake than any I can remember.
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