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With the public release of the Mueller report, comparisons are once again being made between the Trump presidency and that of Richard Nixon. There are indeed multiple similarities, but they may not be the ones observers have in mind. Consider their domestic political projects, foreign policies, and re-election campaigns.
As president, Nixon sought to build a “new majority,” unifying traditional Republicans with culturally conservative Democrats. He was flexible on domestic policy specifics, had no inherent objection to federal government action, and did not believe a libertarian position to be a national vote-winner. Nixon oversaw increases in federal government spending and regulation over a wide range of policy areas. Entitlement benefits were expanded, for example, and important new consumer safety regulations introduced. In sum, Nixon looked to build a personal political legacy on behalf of a “silent majority” of “forgotten Americans” — via the Republican Party — through active management of the nation’s economy combined with culturally conservative populism.
President Donald Trump, for his part, has spoken of an aspiration to turn the GOP into a “worker’s party.” At the grassroots level, his coalition combines two main constituencies into a populist-conservative alliance. Directionally, his overall policy posture is center-right. But it is not the specific version of center-right initially favored by the GOP’s upscale urban postgraduate segment, and since this segment carries disproportionate attention in elite commentary — as does Trump’s smash-mouth style — roiling tensions persist.
On foreign policy, Nixon’s “new majority” focused on limited strategic retrenchment, great-power politics, and a realistic bolstering of America’s position. President Nixon dramatically improved US relations with China, relaxed tensions with the Soviet Union, and oversaw a fighting retreat from Vietnam. His aim was not to abandon anti-Soviet containment, but to make it more sustainable and self-disciplined. On national-security, he emphasized balances of power. Allies were asked to do more in their own defense. On inheriting America’s wartime commitments in Indochina, he employed US airstrikes, improved counterinsurgency methods, and direct diplomacy to pressure Hanoi at the negotiating table.
For all their vast differences in background, personality, and expertise, Trump’s foreign policy instincts bear some resemblance to those of the Nixon-Kissinger team. Donald Trump believes that the United States has born a disproportionate cost of global leadership in both military and economic terms. His emphasis is on a particular version of American autonomy, consolidation, and realism; not on a regime type, or regime change, as a chief American concern. On Afghanistan, Trump has been outspoken in calling for its termination. Yet he ratcheted up efforts in 2017-18, seeking to bring the Taliban to a negotiated settlement.
In 1970-71, Nixon’s re-election was uncertain. Republicans had not done well in the midterms, and the president’s support lagged. Nixon then went on to engineer a remarkable turnaround. He imposed wage and price controls that were politically popular. He reached dramatic diplomatic agreements with Beijing, Moscow, and Hanoi, burnishing his image as a tough peacemaker. He took credit for an expansion of government entitlements. And he fought running verbal skirmishes with the Left on a wide range of cultural and national-security issues. Meanwhile, the Democrats nominated South Dakota Sen. George McGovern for president — the most left-wing candidate of the available choices.
Today, the Democratic Party is far more united and well-organized than it was in 1972. Moreover, conservatives have long since been purged from its ranks, leaving few opportunities for GOP gains on that front. Democrats in the Trump era continue to trend leftward on a variety of issues. And while progressive party activists persuade themselves that most Americans share their specific policy views, moderates and independents may be less convinced. The president retains the firm support of most Republican voters. Under these circumstances, Donald Trump does not have to convince swing voters that he is Abraham Lincoln. All he has to do is convince them that a left-liberal policy agenda is unacceptable. And he may very well do it.
With the public release of the Mueller report, comparisons are once again being made between the Trump presidency and that of Richard Nixon. There are indeed multiple similarities, but they may not be the ones observers have in mind.
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