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The Trump administration has announced that it will revoke the Obama-era California waiver under the Clean Air Act to set its own vehicle mileage requirements. As discussed below, that waiver clearly is illegal. But the outrage is deafening. One report: “‘The president could learn from California,’ [California Governor Gavin] Newsom said in a statement. ‘Instead, reports today suggest that his administration will act on a political vendetta by announcing they intend to end aspects of our clean car waiver.’” Another: “California Attorney General Xavier Becerra vowed to fight any attack on the state’s authority in court, while Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.) said she is ‘exploring all options, including legislation, to block the EPA’s rule.’” A third: “[Becerra] said the White House move ‘could have devasting consequences for our kids’ health and the air we breathe, if California were to roll over. But we will not.’” Finally: “Despite Trump’s promises California state leaders and scientists have long argued that the White House’s proposed changes to the federal emissions standards would worsen air pollution.”
So: People will get sick and die if the Trump administration succeeds in its regulatory effort to mandate a uniform mileage standard of 37 miles per gallon by 2026. That assertion is dishonest, as removal of the waiver would not change the vehicular emissions limits for such conventional (“criteria”) pollutants as carbon monoxide or nitrogen oxides. Those emission standards are defined in grams per mile, not grams per gallon, so that a relaxation of mileage requirements would not affect those emissions on a per-vehicle basis, a regulatory reality that seems to have escaped the attention of many journalists. More important: Mr. Trump is correct that “older, highly polluting cars, will be replaced by new, extremely environmentally friendly cars.” The average age of the US light-vehicle fleet has increased from 8.4 years in 1995 to 11.6 years in 2016 to 11.8 years at the beginning of this year. In substantial part this is due to rising prices — around $4000 to $7100 — caused by the mileage standards and the implicit requirement to subsidize electric vehicles. A relaxation of the mileage requirements will reduce prices and yield a faster turnover of the fleet in favor of newer vehicles satisfying stricter emissions standards for criteria pollutants.
There is the further matter that the Obama-era mileage waiver is explicitly illegal under the Environmental Policy and Conservation Act, which preempts states from adopting or enforcing laws and regulations “related to” fuel economy. The Obama administration noted in 2010 the direct link between “Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards.” Much of the recent reporting on the elimination of the mileage waiver has confused that waiver with those granted under the Clean Air Act (section 209) for criteria pollutants as a response to “compelling and extraordinary conditions” unique to the state (e.g., California) seeking such a waiver. Other states may opt in to such a waiver under section 177. Note, however, that the EPA is not required to grant such waivers; it may do so under certain conditions.
Because consumers across the states have different preferences for various vehicles, auto producers would have to manage 50 different fleets if all the states were to adopt the California standards, an outcome that has been avoided thus far because the Obama administration worked out an extralegal arrangement under which compliance with the EPA fuel standards was accepted by California and its allies. But the central purpose of the higher California mileage standards is creation of a cross-subsidy system for electric vehicles, under which the prices of conventional light vehicles are increased so as to subsidize the vastly higher production costs of electric vehicles. California officials may seek to pretend that the electricity that powers electric vehicles is generated without emissions of either criteria pollutants or greenhouse gases, but there is little reason for the rest of us to be quite that silly. The Trump administration is right to enforce the law and eliminate the California waiver on fuel economy.
California’s Obama-era waiver on emissions clearly is illegal. But the outrage to it being revoked is deafening.
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