G2TT
Brexit delay is almost inevitable now, and perhaps indefinite  智库博客
时间:2019-09-24   作者: Roger Bate  来源:American Enterprise Institute (United States)
Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted unlawfully in suspending Parliament, says the UK’s high court. While the PM may have broken the rules, he did so to push through a no-deal Brexit on October 31. This, while painful, would at least have started to resolve the crisis engulfing British politics. Now there will almost certainly be further delays over Brexit, because a majority of British MPs do not want to leave the EU and they have the upper hand once again. But they cannot say they are defending democracy and then overturn a lawful vote to leave the EU — regardless of the sense of that idea. The EU will also continue to push for delays. I always shook my head when Italy or Greece repeatedly broke borrowing, deficit, or monetary rules and were forgiven by the EU. Maintaining the system, even at the cost of any and all internal rules, was always preferable to sanctioning a member state. The UK is no exception. As I see it, there is likely no deal that will satisfy Parliament, the EU, and the British people. The only possible way is to sacrifice Northern Ireland to become a de facto part of Ireland, and the Northern Irish Protestants and especially the Ulster paramilitaries (that still exist under the surface) will not allow that to happen without a fight — and I do mean an actual fight, with bombs and guns. I therefore suspect that Britain may well join the ranks of nations that will stay in a state of weird EU-rule-bending limbo for years, even decades. British MPs cannot say they are defending democracy and then overturn a lawful vote to leave the EU — regardless of the sense of that idea.

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