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IS THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT CONSTITUTIONAL? WILL THE SUPREME COURT STRIKE ALL OR PART OF IT DOWN? WHAT REFORMS MIGHT REPLACE IT? AT THE END OF THIS ADVISORY, PLEASE FIND A LIST OF AEI SCHOLARS WHO CAN EXPLAIN THE IMPACT OF THE COURT’S RULING – AND WHAT MIGHT COME NEXT
OUTCOME ONE:
SCOTUS does not decide if ACA is constitutional because of the Anti-Injunction Act — an 1867 federal law which states that if you think the government has improperly imposed a tax on you, you must first pay it, request a refund, and only later file a lawsuit to challenge the tax. In this case, only after the individual mandate is enforced.
OUTCOME TWO:
The Anti-Injunction Act does not apply and: A. Individual Mandate is found constitutional B. Individual Mandate is found unconstitutional
OUTCOME THREE:
If the Individual Mandate is found unconstitutional: what else is thrown out by SCOTUS? A. Nothing B. Everything C. Specific parts (for example, only the guaranteed issue and community rating rules for private insurance, all of title I – private health insurance coverage, or title I and all of title II – Medicaid coverage and related provisions)
OUTCOME FOUR:
On a parallel track the Court could declare the Medicaid expansion part as being too coercive and therefore unconstitutional. The following AEI health care scholars are available to comment the ACA; the ruling’s impact; what’s next for Medicare and Medicaid; and health reform alternatives. Joseph Antos AEI Wilson H. Taylor Scholar in Health Care and Retirement Policy A former Assistant Director for Health and Human Resources at the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Antos is currently a commissioner of the Maryland Health Services Cost Review Commission and a health adviser to CBO.
Research areas: Impact on Medicare (and Medicare expansion); economics of health policy; health insurance.
Contact: jantos@aei.org or 202.862.5938. Research assistant catherine.griffin@aei.org (202.862.5920)
James C. Capretta AEI Visiting Scholar As a former Associate Director of the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, Capretta was responsible for health care, Social Security, and welfare issues. Earlier, he served as a senior health policy analyst for the Senate Budget Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee. He is concurrently a Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center.
Research areas: Market-based alternatives to the Affordable Care Act; private sector insurance; GOP alternatives to the ACA.
Contact: james.capretta@aei.org or through research assistant catherine.griffin@aei.org (202.862.5920)
Scott Gottlieb, M.D. AEI Resident Fellow A practicing physician, Dr. Gottlieb has served as a Senior Policy Adviser at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and as a Deputy Commissioner for Medical and Scientific Affairs at the Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
Research areas: Impact of Affordable Care Act on physicians; impact on CMS: Medicare and Medicaid; trends in medicine (political and clinical); FDA policies.
Contact: scott.gottlieb@aei.org or through research assistant catherine.griffin@aei.org (202.862.5920)
Robert B. Helms AEI Resident Scholar An economist by training, Helms was a member of the Medicaid Commission. He has also served as an Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Health Policy at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
Research areas: Impact on Medicaid and Medicare; health economics.
Contact: rhelms@aei.org
J.D. Kleinke AEI Resident Fellow An expert on health care business strategy and entrepreneurship, Kleinke studies the interplay between health policy, health care market dynamics and health venture formation. He also writes about the influence of information technology and medical technology on the overall health economy, and the impact of medical culture on health care organizations, markets and public health.
Research areas: Reaction of business and healthcare industry to SCOTUS decision; link between health care market dynamics and health care policy; medical technology; electronic medical records; and the overall health economy.
Contact: jd.kleinke@aei.org or through research assistant catherine.griffin@aei.org (202-862-5920)
Thomas (Tom) P. Miller AEI Resident Fellow Miller can discuss the legal aspects of the case as well as the various policy options.
A former trial attorney and former senior health economist for the Joint Economic Committee in Congress, Miller heads AEI’s Beyond Repeal and Replace health policy reform project. He is the co-author of Why ObamaCare is Wrong for America (2011).
Miller is instrumental in the filing of an amicus brief on “severability” issues which makes the case for SCOTUS to invalidate only the Individual Mandate and the private insurance part of the Affordable Care Act (title I).
Research areas: Affordable Care Act and the SCOTUS decision; market-based alternatives to the Affordable Care Act; private sector health insurance.
Contact: tmiller@aei.org or 202.862.5886
More information about AEI’s health care research is available here.
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