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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Washington, DC (May 31, 2017) — In a new monograph, J. Matthew McInnis, a former Department of Defense senior analyst and American Enterprise Institute resident fellow, provides an analytical framework to help policymakers understand Iran’s national security decision-making and formulate coherent US policies. In this comprehensive study, the reader will find an in-depth look at everything from Iran’s soft-power strategies and diplomatic philosophy to how Iran fights and prepares for war.
Among McInnis’ Key Findings:
1. Four core variables influence how the Islamic Republic makes decisions: ideology, resource availability, formal and informal networks, and above all else, threat perceptions. The interplay among these variables shapes how Iran sees the world and what becomes a priority for Iranian leadership.
2. In some cases, Iran’s foreign policy is anchored by ideology, rather than practical considerations of security interests. These include opposition to the US and Israel and spreading Khomeini-ist versions of Islamic governance. This can make Tehran’s decision-making difficult to anticipate and mitigate for western policymakers.
3. Iran’s network of proxies and partners, led by Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reflects the intersection between ideological and geopolitical national interests. This network spreads Iranian influence and ideas while providing Tehran with lethal and clandestine means to project power, deter its adversaries, and compete with rivals.
4. In the conventional military sphere, Iran remains defensively oriented and avoids direct confrontation with the US and other military powers. Tehran recognizes that Washington will have the advantage as conflict escalates and the capability to counter any action. Therefore, the perception of American military strength is crucial to deterring conflict and managing escalation and de-escalation during crises.
5. The year 2016 appeared to be an inflection point for the Iranian military. Because of the campaigns in Syria and Iraq, top Iranian officials are now expressing a desire for more offensive capabilities and doctrines, as well as overseas bases. Tehran’s capacity to make this transformation depends on future resources, made available to the regime by the Iran nuclear deal, and access to foreign defense technologies.
6. Tehran’s military expenditures and research and development investment levels can be reasonably estimated based on Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates and the price of oil. However, a major shift in Tehran’s threat perceptions can override the importance of GDP to determine Iran’s relative defense spending.
7. The United States has overwhelming influence on Iran’s strategic policies and behaviors. The US has great power to affect Iran’s threat perceptions, resources, and capacity to ensure escalation dominance in any conflict. Suggestions that the US lacks leverage vis-à-vis Iran are wrong.
Read the full monograph: The future of Iran’s security policy
For interview requests, or for a copy of the monograph, please contact Meg Cahill at meg.cahill@aei.org or 202.862.7155.
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