WRI’s Climate Program Director Jonathan Pershing discusses
the likely outcomes of the upcoming UNFCCC Convention in Poznan, Poland.
[mp3player podcasts/climatecomment_cop14.mp3]
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Q: Why should the American people care about a global climate treaty?
A: Our financial wealth will not exempt us from the consequences of climate
change. Lake Meade, which provides nearly all of Las Vegas’ water, and a
significant percentage both for Phoenix and L.A., has a 10% chance of
running dry as soon as 2014, and more than a 50% chance of running dry
by 2025. Sea levels could rise three feet over the next century, displacing
populations all along the Eastern seaboard. Linked to volatile and rising energy prices and increasing global concerns with energy security as well as to potential economic stimulus packages for advanced new energy technology, climate
change is the pre-eminent cross-cutting issue facing the incoming president.
A global agreement, backed by action from all nations, is the best hope for
constraining greenhouse gas emissions within the limits to which humans
can adapt.
Q: What is on the agenda at Poznan?
A: The Poznan Conference of Parties is a stepping stone to a critical international
climate meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 2009 which
is supposed to deliver a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. There
should be progress in areas such as technology support, adaptation and deforestation,
and continued financing for the UNFCCC Secretariat. But the big
political question – ‘what will the new U.S. administration do and how will
the world respond?’ – will not be answered. A good outcome, given this holding
position, would be for other countries to set the bar high, and commit to a
concerted global effort to make a robust new agreement happen over the next year.
WRI At Poznan
WRI’s objective is to see an effective international climate
agreement in place by 2012, supported by effective national
implementation by major countries, including the U.S.
We will have a dozen experts at Poznan who will hold briefings
and workshops for negotiators and observers. We will
seek to influence the discussions on critical issues including
climate adaptation funding, technology transfer and reducing
deforestation.
Key Contacts
Policy: Rob Bradley
Director of International
Climate Policy
General/media: Stephanie Hanson
Communications Associate
Q: What role will the U.S. play? Will the president-elect be represented?
A: The Bush administration has avoided significant climate change policy,
leaving the U.S. so far a largely ignored observer at these international
negotiations. In the final weeks of the Presidency, it would be surprising to
see any change in this position at Poznan. President-elect Obama takes an
entirely different view of the urgency of climate change, indicating that his
Administration will actively participate in ongoing international discussions and negotiations. In the context of the financial crisis, he has stated that he will not interfere with the current Administration’s efforts, and the same will be true in Poznan. However, considerable emphasis will be placed on any informal discussions with members of his transition team, several of whom are expected to attend.
Q: U.S. reluctance to act on reducing greenhouse gas emissions is partly driven by concerns that China and India will not take similar action. What will they offer at Poznan?
A: China has recently set aggressive domestic targets on energy efficiency,
renewable energy and reforestation. With China recently taking over (from the
U.S.) as the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, many nations will be
looking to Beijing to make a public commitment to taking a leadership role
internationally. While India too has very large national emissions, its share, on
a per person basis, is much lower than China’s – and less than one tenth of
those in the U.S. India is expected to continue to seek financial assistance from
developed countries to undertake new policies and measures, although, given
the current financial climate, it is unlikely that the scale of such contributions
will meet their expectations. Developing countries are not expected to commit
to mandatory emissions cuts and target dates as part of these ongoing negotiations;
however, they are expected to further elaborate how they will undertake
(and subsequently monitor, report on and have verified) national greenhouse
gas reduction actions.
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Q: Do you see the U.S. taking a leadership role in negotiating a new global
climate agreement in 2009? What role would Congress play?
A: The U.S. holds the key to a successful global climate treaty. Without aggressive
domestic action by the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter,
other nations will not respond in kind and there will be no agreement in Copenhagen.
Over the next 12 months, expect to see a joint exercise by the White
House and Congress to enact substantial legislation to address climate change.
This will likely include both funding for energy efficiency, renewables, and
carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology development as part of an
economic stimulus package, and separate climate legislation including a
federal cap and trade bill. In parallel, I expect to see a re-engagement and
reinvigoration of the U.S. role in the international negotiations.
Whether the domestic U.S. legislation can be completed in time for the December
2009 deadline for a new global climate treaty is uncertain, particularly in light
of the global economic downturn. But with a Democratic president and sizable
Congressional majority, the prospect of a U.S. president signing, and Congress
ratifying, such a treaty in 2010 is a real possibility.
