Suzanne Maloney (@MaloneySuzanne), Deputy Director of the Brookings Foreign Policy program and Senior Fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy: After months of speculation and a flurry of last-minute European diplomacy, Donald Trump has taken perhaps the most consequential decision of his unconventional presidency with the Tuesday announcement that he is re-imposing U.S. sanctions on Iran in a deliberately provocative breach of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. By torpedoing U.S. adherence to the accord, Trump has all but guaranteed its collapse, a move that opens the door to the unfettered resumption of Iran’s nuclear program and unleashes unpredictable escalatory pressures in an already volatile Middle East.
Authors
Suzanne Maloney
Deputy Director - Foreign Policy
Senior Fellow - Center for Middle East Policy, Energy Security and Climate Initiative
Natan Sachs
Director - Center for Middle East Policy
Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Bruce Riedel
Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Center for Middle East Policy
Director - The Intelligence Project
Mara Karlin
Nonresident Senior Fellow, Security and Strategy - Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence
Frank A. Rose
Senior Fellow, Security and Strategy - Foreign Policy
Richard Nephew
Nonresident Senior Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative
Dror Michman
Former Brookings Expert
Tanvi Madan
Director - The India Project
Fellow - Foreign Policy, Project on International Order and Strategy
The premediated American dismantling of an agreement that was the product of more than a decade of intense diplomacy and economic pressure marks a staggeringly counterproductive step. That it was undertaken over the vocal objections of Washington’s closest allies and without a clear strategy of mitigating the newly heightened risks of Iranian proliferation and conventional retaliation represents an abdication of American leadership on the international stage that is unparalleled in recent history.
The only question that matters is: How is America safer now? If the president truly believes that the JCPOA’s far-reaching inspections regime and its restrictions of 10, 15, and 25 years are somehow insufficient to guard against Iran’s unshakeable yearning for a nuclear weapon, what risks then are posed by the evisceration of all constraints?
Natan Sachs (@natansachs), Director and Fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy: The main question in the wake of Trump’s announcement is the same that faced opponents of the JCPOA when the deal was struck: What is your alternative? Critics of the deal had valid concerns on the deal’s shortcomings and on the cost of loosening the pressure on the Islamic Republic, but they repeatedly failed to convince most countries in the world that they offered a serious alternative. Trump, returning to familiar themes about his negotiating skills, suggested that Iran could strike a new deal with him. More realistically, as I argued elsewhere, the alternative is an open-ended standoff with Iran: Deterrence. This can be a serious approach, if—and only if—one is willing to sustain the pressure through a comprehensive strategy and signal credibly that one is willing to back up one’s threats. This is now the unenviable task of the administration in the new era we’ve just entered of a Trump-charted Iran policy.
Bruce Riedel, Senior Fellow in the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence and the Center for Middle East Policy: Saudi King Salman and his son Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman are the most anti-Iranian leadership in modern Saudi history. They have broken relations with Tehran and characterized it as a Hitler-like threat to the world. They have already welcomed President Trump’s announcement and sanctions. If oil prices rise, the Saudis will welcome that too.
But the Iran nuclear threat is not Riyadh’s top priority or concern. The Saudi priority is the missile threat from Iranian technology and expertise provided to the Zaydi Shia Houthis in Yemen. Over 125 missiles have been fired at Saudi cities since the war in Yemen began. Since last November, Riyadh has been a target. Saudi air defenses have shot down many of the missiles, but the pace of attacks is increasing along with the range of the missiles. The Iranians are posing a clear and immediate threat to the kingdom.
Of course the Houthis are responding to the Saudi air strikes on Yemen and their blockade of Yemen. This week, the Saudis bombed the president’s palace in Sanaa. The Iranians are playing with fire by assisting the Houthis with missile technology. President Trump referred to the issue but offered no specific response. Efforts to stop Iran’s technology transfers have proven ineffective so far. A move to reprimand Iran in the Security Council was blocked by Russia.
The president did refer to Iran’s “sinister” actions in Yemen and its meddling in the region. This is Saudi Arabia’s second priority. Iran has outmaneuvered the kingdom for influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in recent years, in addition to the role it plays in Yemen. Hezbollah and its allies just out-polled the Saudis’ allies in Lebanon’s elections, in another setback for the kingdom.
The Saudis are now going to press the U.S. administration for a strategy to stop Iran’s support for the Houthis and their missile capabilities. They will want a strategy to roll back Iranian influence in the region and undermine Hezbollah. The Trump decision to “exit” the JCPOA will actually make all that harder, because it splits the Americans from the other signatories to the deal and weakens their willingness to confront Iran for now.
Suzanne Maloney: “The only question that matters is: How is America safer now?”
Dan Byman (@dbyman), Senior Fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy: Once again we see the triumph of symbolism and domestic politics over foreign policy substance. We have a decision without a plan. The president can announce to Americans that he acted tough, but the reality will be policy confusion, with allies looking elsewhere for leadership.
Hady Amr (@HadyAmr), Visiting Fellow and Project Director: By ditching the Iran deal this week, and opening the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem, Trump has demonstrated that he is willing to upend standing conventions, world opinion, and go back on America’s word. In doing so, he has further alienated key European partners—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—and Eurasian rivals China and Russia in a manner that makes the Middle East a far more dangerous and conflict-prone region today than it has been in years. Trump has also likely created a pathway for Iran to build stronger relations with Europe, Russia, and China to maintain the deal. How will this impact the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Israeli and Palestinian security writ large? Israel is already on alert for conflict with Iran. The announcement will also put the opening of the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem on May 14 in a different, darker light. Recent polling suggests that by a ratio of 20:1, young Arabs see the Sunni-Shiite divide, which the Iran deal exacerbates, as bad for the Middle East. Nearly 60 percent of young Arabs see the United States as an enemy and by a ratio of 10:1 see the election of Trump as negative for the Arab world. This week, more than ever, the security of the people of the Middle East will depend on Iran’s own discipline to stay on its course.
Mara Karlin, Nonresident Senior Fellow in the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence: If one wanted to alienate allies and partners, minimize international support for Iran’s accountability, further destabilize the Middle East, suck the oxygen out of efforts to punish Iran for its bad behavior regionally, and demonstrate to North Korea that negotiating with the United States is worth little, then the president’s decision today is a smart move. If, however, one recognizes that U.S. allies and partners are our comparative advantage, acknowledges that the international community’s pressure has had a meaningful impact on Iran’s nuclear program, remains concerned over Iran’s support to terrorists and other nefarious regional actors, and appreciates that Washington would hold a parade if it could match the JCPOA’s terms for North Korea, then the president’s decision today is foolish and shortsighted at best.
Samantha Gross (@samanthaenergy), Fellow in the Energy Security and Climate Initiative: President Trump’s decision to re-impose sanctions on Iran is a sad move for diplomacy, but the repercussions on oil markets will likely be less severe. Oil markets had already priced in the likelihood of renewed sanctions before the president’s announcement, with the Brent oil price exceeding $75 per barrel for the first time in nearly four years. Prices could rise further in response, but as I write late in the afternoon on the day of the announcement, that hasn’t happened.
The re-imposition of sanctions is expected to remove about 0.5 million barrels per day (mbd) from the market