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Context
The poorest country in Europe, wedged between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova was part of the Russian Empire in the 19thcentury and most of it became part of Romania after the First World War before being incorporated as a republic of the Soviet Union in 1940. Afterdeclaring independencein 1991 after the failed August coup against Soviet President Gorbachev, tensions with pro-Russian separatist movements in Transnistria led to a brief conflict in 1992, which has remained frozen since a July 1992 ceasefire.
Moldova maintains close and historic ties to Romania, its top trading partner (with Russia a close second). The European Union is Moldova’s top export market (66%of the country’s exports go to the EU). In 2014, Moldova signed an Association Agreement and a free trade agreement (Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement – DCFTA) with the European Union, under protest from Russia, which retaliated with importrestrictionson agricultural produce (Moldova’sbiggestexport to Russia). Moldova’s president, Igor Dodon, is pro-Russian and favors Moldova joining the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union over the European Union. Moldova struggles with high levels of corruption, ranking122 out of 180onTransparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index 2017. Moldova will have parliamentary elections no later than November 2018.
Russia has deployed “peacekeeping” troops in Transnistria since the 1992 ceasefire, totaling between 1,500 and 2,000 soldiers. The breakaway Transnistrian “military” isreportedto have between 4,000 and 7,500 active troops, which areintegratedinto the Russian 14thArmy (or Operative Group of the Russian Troops). Despite a 1999 commitment at the OSCE Istanbul Summit to withdraw these forces by 2002, Russia has maintained its military presence in the breakaway region and regularly organizes joint military exercises. The Kremlin also retains a largeweapons depotin Cobasna, Transnistria.
Following the 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea and Russian military intervention in the Donbas, the Moldovan government banned Russian forces from crossing into its territory and prevented the Russian air force from landing in Chisinau, the capital. Moldovan intelligence services have asserted that people from Transnistria also havetaken partin the conflict in Ukraine.
Spotlight: Military Intimidation
Joint Russia-separatist military exercises in Transnistria have recently intensified despite repeatedrequestsfrom Moldovan, American, and European authorities for Russia to withdraw its troops. From just 48 in 2016, the number of Russian military exercises and activities jumped to over 150 (300 according to some reports) in 2017, including practicing thecrossingof the Dniester River, which separates the region from the rest of Moldova.
Military exercises in Transnistria in early 2018.
Russian military exercises in Transnistria have grown into larger-scale events, which appear similar to the military exercises on the Russian-Georgian border prior to Russia’s military intervention in August 2008—though it is important to note that unlike Georgia, Russia has no border with Transnistria on which it could mass forces ahead of a military incursion.These exercises are prompting fears that future military exercises could follow the Georgian and Ukrainian military intervention pattern from Russia: (1) the Kremlin has willing allies within Transnistria; (2) the Transnistrian population overwhelmingly voted for independence and future integration into Russia in an unrecognized 2006referendum(no country to date has recognized Transnistria as an independent state); and (3) there are Russian military forces already present in Transnistria.
Russian military exercises in Transnistria have grown into larger-scale events.
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