Followers of the Houthi movement carry a mock drone during a rally held to mark the Ashura in Saada, Yemen September 10, 2019. REUTERS/Naif Rahma
Divas with Janbiyas
The ten-drone
attack on Aramco’s Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia on September 14 is a
sign that the Houthis suffer from false confidence.
The Houthi movement’s leadership interprets Congressional
pressure on Saudi Arabia as a green light to act against the Kingdom. And
they understand that current interpretations of US law limit our options for
disarming them before they strike our allies and interests.
This false confidence leads them to routinely spoil attempts to
negotiate with any party, yet they are entirely ineffective at articulating
what they’d settle on as an endstate. If they seek to play a politically
influential role in the future of Yemen, following through on invitations to
discuss this possibility is smarter than drawing return fire on the Yemenis
they will need to vote for them.
This strike is particularly naive because of the Taliban’s
experience last week. Snubbing talks and launching attacks is not a way to
garner sympathy from the United States or the international community.
Take a deep breath and strategize
There is no need for an escalatory response to this attack. Aramco has built smart redundancy into its operations. The market will flinch today and oil prices will blip up, but Aramco will pull a standard operating procedure off the shelf and have things back on line in hours, while they deal with the cleanup separately.
There is a good chance that this attack was the result of an
internal Houthi argument and is the hardline Houthi faction’s way of punishing
those among them who were willing to negotiate.
We are holding our breath right now, waiting to see how Saudi
Arabia reacts. Even if Saudi Arabia makes a unilateral decision to respond
in a way that oversteps the advice of the international community, this should
not cause panic. Here is how it would likely play out:
- The Iranian-backed Houthis use
a ballistic missile or drone in an attack that cripples Saudi critical
infrastructure or kills a Saudi citizen.
- Saudi Arabia launches
retaliatory air strikes inside Iran. Targeting is not optimal and civilian
casualties result.
- Iran begins an extended
campaign of daily attacks inside Saudi Arabia. Southern and eastern populations
begin relocating, creating an internally displaced persons issue
set.
- International businesses send
their representatives home and embassies reduce to essential personnel,
creating a public relations problem that impacts foreign direct
investment.
- The US administration is
pressured to condone or condemn Saudi’s action. The White House issues a
statement that every country has the right to defend its sovereign territory
and encourages a cessation of strikes by both sides.
- Oil prices rise, prompting US President
Donald J. Trump to urge Saudi’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to call for a
ceasefire. Understanding that Congress will not approve sending America to
war to defend Saudi Arabia, the Crown Prince begrudgingly does so, saying it is
in the interest of all Muslims.
- Iran, sensing that the United
States will not enter an expanded conflict on the side of Saudi Arabia,
convinces the Houthis to scale back attacks but not stop them entirely,
returning the tempo of conflict to its previous level, aka Iran’s happy
place.
The critical error that the Houthis could make here is breaking
the ceasefire and again refusing to talk. Patience will have run out,
sympathies will have waned.
They will also be contending with an additional set of adversaries
who do not wish to talk, al-Qaeda and ISIS elements now less constrained after
the Emirati drawdown. The longer the Houthi fighters insist on attacks instead
of negotiations, the more time they allow these elements to come north and find
their families.
The smartest thing for Iran to do right now is say this attack on
Abqaiq was an internal Houthi decision.
The smartest thing for the Houthis to do right now is show up at a
table with a willingness to accept a proportional political role and a request
for a hefty gift of sustained infrastructure and services upgrades to their
homeland.
The smartest thing for the Saudis to do is repair Abqaiq and show
the world how little the Houthis can impact them or their role in stabilizing
world energy markets.
The United States has limited options for non-escalatory intervention. But we can ask our friends in Oman, who consistently try to create conditions for peace, to tell their Houthi guests that if they do not agree to show up at talks they will need to find a new place to be intransigent.
Kirsten Fontenrose is director of Regional Security in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs.
Read more:
Fri, Jul 19, 2019
As the number of attacks and close calls continues to climb in the volatile region, risks of wider conflict are mounting and soon could be difficult for all sides to control.
New Atlanticist
by
David A. Wemer
Fri, Mar 15, 2019
The passage of Senate Joint Resolution 7 is a fresh rebuke for the Trump administration, that its support for the Saudi-led war on Yemen is unauthorized, illegal, and an immoral assault on the Yemeni people.
MENASource
by
Nabeel Khoury
Thu, Jan 24, 2019
The only hope for ending the Yemen war lies with enough congressional pressure to force the administration’s hand to use its military assistance to Saudi Arabia as leverage to bring about a solution.
New Atlanticist
by
Nabeel Khoury
The ten-drone attack on Aramco’s Abqaiq facility in Saudi Arabia on September 14 is a sign that the Houthis suffer from false confidence. Snubbing talks and launching attacks is not a way to garner sympathy from the United States or the international community.
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