US Army General Joseph Votel (L), head of the US military’s Central Command, walks with US Army Lieutenant General Paul LaCamera commander of the US-led coalition against Islamic State, after landing in Baghdad, Iraq February 17, 2019. REUTERS/Phil Stewart
The United States must continue to build its systems of
alliances and partnerships across the Middle East in order to ensure stability and
to combat the growing influence of outside powers in the region, former
commander of US Central Command General Joseph Votel said on October 8.
With festering conflicts in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and
Afghanistan, continued instability in Iraq and the Persian Gulf, and growing fatigue
among the US public for military involvement in the region, partners and allies
will be vital to protecting US interests in the years to come, Votel argued at
an Atlantic Council event on the future of US Middle East policy. “Strong
partnership can act as a mitigator in the areas where we choose to accept risk and
where we also retain important national security interests,” Votel, who served
as commander of United States Central Command from 2016 until March 2019, said.
“In essence, having a longer list of partners, allies, and friends than our
adversaries and competitors is always better.”
While the former general maintained that the United States has
focused on building more partnerships across the region, he warned that recent
US policy decisions could put these relationships in jeopardy. On October 7, the
White House said that the United States would be moving some US troops away
from the northeastern Syrian areas controlled by Syrian Defense Forces (SDF)—a
militia made up of Kurdish and Arab fighters that have fought the Islamic State
of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) with assistance from the United States—and would not
oppose Turkish military action to remove SDF forces from areas near the Turkey-Syria
border. Votel said that he reacted to the change of policy with “disappointment
that we are letting down our partners, perhaps adding to the humanitarian disaster
in this region, and that we may be ceding a hard-won strategic advantage.”
Turkey has alleged that the Kurdish elements of the
SDF—specifically the People’s Protection Unites (YPG)—are allied with the
Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorist organization. Votel said that during
his time at US Central Command, he considered the SDF “a capable and
trustworthy partner” that “did everything we asked them to do, even when it was
not something they necessarily wanted.”
Votel further warned that the implications of the US shift could be much wider than Syria. At a time when Washington should be cultivating more cooperation with like-minded partners, the change in policy, Votel argued, “will make it more difficult to build partnership in the future.”
Enter Moscow and Beijing
These partnerships will be vital to future US strategy in
the Middle East, Votel continued, as Washington looks to protect its interests
while dealing with existing tensions and the rising influence of new players. David
Schenker, assistant secretary in the US Department of State’s Bureau of Near Eastern
Affairs agreed, saying that the United States “seek[s] to tackle the region’s problems
by working together with partners, advancing their interests while we advance
our own.”
Schenker warned, however, that the entrance of Russia and
China into the region as major powers threatens not only to damage US interests
but will also weaken those who partner with them. Rather than helping partners
build their own capacities, Beijing and Moscow “exploit openings to increase
their own influence at the expense of their partners,” according to Schenker.
He pointed out that “Saudi Arabia is China’s leading oil supplier,” but Beijing
has offered no support to Riyadh to protect its shipping against attacks from
Iranian forces. Similarly, Russia has taken no tangible steps to help the
region end any of its long-standing violent conflicts, preferring instead to
play “spoiler to advance its own interests,” including sponsoring the regime of
Bashar al-Assad in Syria and sending private military forces into Libya.
The particularly destabilizing influence of Russia in the
Middle East is the focus of a new report by the Italian Institute for International
Political Studies (ISPI) and the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the
Middle East called The MENA Region: A Great Power Competition.
The report, edited by Atlantic Council resident senior fellow Karim Mezran and
ISPI senior research fellow Arturo Varvelli, warns that perceived withdrawal by
the United States from the Middle East, militarily and politically, leaves a
vacuum which China and Russia are eager to fill. Moscow in particular has
already shown a willingness to become directly involved in hot and cold
conflicts, sometimes allying themselves with both sides in order to play them
off against each other.
Armando Varricchio, the ambassador of Italy to the United States, said the entrance of Russia and China into the region made it even more important for the United States and its allies to remain engaged. “What happens in the Mediterranean and the MENA region does not stay there,” he argued, adding that
“there cannot be a withdrawal from the Middle East. This is the key to our collective security.”
A new strategy for a changed region
The alternative to withdrawal, Votel argued, is re-engagement with the United States’ long list of allies and partners in the region. The United States should strive to maintain its position as a “preferred partner” throughout the Middle East, he explained. “Being the preferred partner will allow us the opportunity to preserve our important interests while at the same time shifting focus to address vital national interests.”
The first steps to achieve this, Votel continued, must be to
help find political resolution to the conflicts in Afghanistan, Syria, Libya,
and Yemen, which he described as the “sucking chest wounds of the region.” The
ongoing wars not only drain US treasure and manpower from protecting other interests,
but also provide Russia and other potential adversaries openings through which
to expand their influence.
The United States should also reinvest directly in the
programs and projects that deepen ties with partners in the region, Votel said.
Security cooperation offices should be expanded to deepen military-to-military
ties, he argued, although these should be “conditional on military
professionalism and sustained self-reliance.” Washington should also focus on
trying to build more sustainable “coalition task forces,” like the US-led
maritime security coalition to help protect shipping in the Persian Gulf,
to shift more of the security burden onto its Middle Eastern partners and help
develop their capabilities. US forces could also devote more resources to the
International Military Education and Training program and conduct more
security exercises to build interoperability and shared strategic culture with
partners.
All of these measures would help to deepen the network of
friends the United States has in the region and help build resilience to potential
destabilizing conflicts and malign influence from other adversaries, Votel argued.
The overall goal of the United States in these efforts, according to Votel,
would be to preserve “an overall favorable balance of power in the region, when
compared against other great power competitors or would be regional hegemons.”
Doing so will require the United States to avoid the
temptation to withdraw from the region as a whole, but rather to “have better
balance,” with significant economic, diplomatic, and commercial engagement to
rebuild trust and deepen connections across the region, Votel said. By taking
more concerted action to meaningfully engage the region, he concluded, the
United States and its allies can help transform the region and provide a much
brighter future.
David A. Wemer is associate director, editorial at the Atlantic Council. Follow him on Twitter @DavidAWemer.
Further reading
Tue, Oct 8, 2019
The idea of a ‘Russian resurgence’ in the Middle East set against a perceived American withdrawal has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars alike, warranting further examination.
Report
by
Karim Mezran and Arturo Varvelli
Mon, Oct 7, 2019
An October 6 phone call between US President Donald J. Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan resulted in a partial withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria and Trump’s endorsement of Turkish plans to send their own military forces into the region.
MENASource
by
Thu, Jun 6, 2019
While the United States and China grapple over trade, intellectual property rights, technology transfer, and geopolitical tensions in East Asia, open competition has not yet extended to the Middle East, a region where Washington remains a major player and Beijing has rapidly expanded its influence.
New Atlanticist
by
David A. Wemer
The United States must continue to build its systems of alliances and partnerships across the Middle East, but Washington's change of policy toward the Syrian Kurds “will make it more difficult to build partnership in the future,” General Joseph Votel said.
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