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After a couple of relatively stable years in the South China Sea (SCS), tensions are flaring up again this year. We have witnessed the Vietnamese and Chinese deployments of oil rigs and ships, the sinking of a Philippine fishing boat reportedly by a Chinese vessel, and frequent and unprecedented operations conducted by the US and its allies. China has continued to build up military facilities on its artificial islands, and some domestic groups in Southeast Asian countries have protested against China’s influence. Meanwhile, China and ASEAN are negotiating a Code of Conduct in the SCS, a process they started in 2002 and aim to finish by 2022. Part of the obstacle of reaching an agreement is differences among ASEAN countries because of China’s significant influence over the less developed countries, thanks to the lure of economic benefits from China’s Belt and Road Initiative of infrastructure investment.
In the view of some observers, the SCS is a hot spot where a third world war could be ignited between China and the US. What are the chances of resolving the SCS dispute? To what extent do China have influence over Southeast Asian countries through economic means? This seminar gathers international and Danish experts on the SCS dispute and China-Southeast Asia relations to provide the most up-to-date and insightful analysis. Dr Bill Hayton, Associate Fellow with Chatham House and a BBC journalist, will argue that the SCS dispute is neither intractable nor irresolvable, and that it is not necessary to understand the entire history of the SCS to reach a judgement on the overlapping claims. Dr Pongphisoot Busbarat, Lecturer in International Relations at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, will describe how mainland Southeast Asia has become a major focus in China’s Southeast Asia policy under Xi Jinping’s presidency, and how mainland Southeast Asian countries have adopted different strategies in an attempt to balance Beijing’s influence. Dr Andreas Bøje Forsby, Researcher at Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, will be discussant; and Dr Yang Jiang, Senior Researcher at DIIS, will be chairperson and introduce her policy brief ‘Money and Security in the South China Sea: Can China buy peace in its neighborhood?’
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