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\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eTwo recent events have marked an escalation in the civil turmoil that has plagued Ethiopia for the past two years, and could lead to even greater political violence and uncertainty. On 15 February, Hailemariam Desalegn unexpectedly resigned as prime minister and chairman of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition, which has governed the country since 1991. The next day the EPRDF announced a six-month state of emergency for the second time in less than two years, the previous one having only been lifted in August 2017.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSince 2015, anti-government protests have rocked the country as ethnic Oromos and Amharas, respectively the largest and second-largest ethnic groups in the country, have demonstrated against what they view as their economic, political and social marginalisation by the government. In turn, the government has relied on authoritarian measures to quell burgeoning civil unrest, imposing restrictive laws, intimidating the media and imprisoning opposition members. Security forces have often violently suppressed peaceful protests.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eParty rifts and broken promises\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe EPRDF is a coalition party composed of the country’s four major ethnic groups – Oromo, Amhara, the southern nationalities and Tigrayan. The minority Tigrayan group, however, practically dominates the party as well as the economic and military spheres. Desalegn is a member of the Wolayta group, one of the southern nationalities. Party doubts about his ability to manage the precarious internal situation apparently \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022http://www.dw.com/en/ethiopia-searches-for-renewal-after-hailemariam-desalegns-resignation/a-42642016\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eforced\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e his resignation. Certainly, it demonstrates that cracks within the ruling EPRDF coalition that arose with the outbreak of civil unrest in 2015 have grown significantly. Party cohesion will be tested even further in the coming weeks as the EPRDF’s central committee meets to appoint a new prime minister – an endeavour that will inevitably ignite intense ethnic debates among the coalition members. If they cannot agree firmly on party leadership, the party may divide along ethnic lines.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe new six-month state of emergency increases restrictions on freedom of speech and assembly and extends the security services’ powers. This development represents a retrogression from the government’s earlier statements, which promised political reform and inclusive governance, emblematised by the release of over 6,000 political prisoners since the beginning of 2018. That measure now reads as a temporary expedient, granted merely to relieve immediate political pressure on the government. Its effective re-imposition of martial law negates any reformist momentum and goodwill generated by the prisoner release, and seems to reinforce the ruling party’s standing inclination towards authoritarianism.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eWindow for peaceful reform is closing\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eProtests thus far have been generally peaceful. Most demonstrators have resorted to sit-ins, walkouts and marches instead of violence, signifying their defiance by crossing their wrists in an X shape above their heads. But the new state of emergency signals that any window for meaningful substantive dialogue between the government and opposition members that might produce deep reform is closing. This political claustrophobia could enhance the credibility and legitimacy of those who advocate violent protests as the only means by which ethnically marginalised peoples can secure their political, economic and social rights. Nevertheless, there remain several ways in which the government could de-escalate the situation on the ground and show that peaceful reform is still possible.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFirstly, it could appoint a new prime minister who is serious about inclusive governance and determined to unify the EPRDF, as well as address its political and ethnic tensions. The government would best consider a candidate from one of the marginalised groups. A promising figure is Lemma Megersa, president of the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization, one of four ethnically based regional parties that make up the EPRDF coalition. He is widely respected and considered to be reform-minded. Oromo regional leaders have also suggested that the government includes officials from opposition parties outside the ruling coalition to signal a genuine desire for national reconciliation and to meet protesters’ demands for more inclusive democracy.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSecondly, the government could open a dialogue with long-time opposition members who have been openly critical of the government, which would enhance the legitimacy of the political process. Finally, the government could lift the latest state of emergency altogether. As shown by events last January in the \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022http://www.africanews.com/2018/02/19/defiance-strike-in-ethiopia-s-amhara-region-over-state-of-emergency/\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAmhara\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e regional state, where security forces shot dead up to 20 civilians and detained over 200 during a week-long crackdown on protesters, civil unrest will continue, and the security forces will act with or without declared martial law. The formal state of emergency only increases anger and instability.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eEthiopia’s immediate future remains uncertain. What is clear is that decisions the government makes in the coming days and weeks will critically determine whether the country is able to take a step back from its increasingly precarious situation.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_NVw8PnqERlHTKeomNAA"))});
The Ethiopian government\u0027s harsh authoritarian measures have exacerbated civil unrest. The ruling party would do well to engage with the country’s marginalised ethnic groups to defuse tensions on the ground.
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