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\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSince the beginning of his presidency, Donald Trump has promised the ‘deal of the century’ between the Israelis and Palestinians. He vows to succeed where his predecessors have failed. Though his Middle East peace team has made multiple visits to Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabia to discuss the peace effort, there is actually no great deal on the horizon. The regional peace plan conveyed by Senior adviser Jared Kushner and special envoy Jason Greenblatt is a loss of time while the US administration fans the flames in Jerusalem. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5 style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSpeculation over long-overdue US peace plan\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFor months the White House has promised to release its peace plan. Nothing substantial has been presented yet and speculation is running high. Kushner unveiled a few points in a \u003ca href=\u0022http://www.alquds.com/articles/1529795861841079700/\u0022\u003eJune interview\u003c/a\u003e with the Palestinian newspaper Al Quds. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFirst, he admitted that the plan would not endorse the two-state solution with East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine (as requested by the Palestinians, the Arab states, the United Nations and others). Kushner said both parties would have to determine what is an acceptable compromise (emphasising the same point Donald Trump expressed during his \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/feb/15/israel-palestine-donald-trump-two-state-solution-netanyahu\u0022\u003ejoint press conference\u003c/a\u003e with Benyamin Netanyahu in February 2017). \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSecond, the plan would promote an economic approach (associating Egypt and Jordan) reminiscent of the economic parameters of the 1993 Oslo accords and then the ‘economic peace’ paradigm sponsored by ex-Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad (2007–13). The idea is to convince the Palestinians to accept political losses in exchange for economic assistance and development. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThird, the plan counts on Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, but also Egypt, Jordan and to some extent Qatar (with regard to the situation in Gaza) facilitating final negotiations through either security and economic guarantees or direct pressure on the Palestinian Authority (PA). Nevertheless, King Salman of Saudi Arabia recently declared that he would \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/saudis-say-u-s-peace-plan-must-include-e-j-l-as-palestinian-capital-1.6319323\u0022\u003enot sponsor\u003c/a\u003e a plan that does not include a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFourth, Kushner identified Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas as an obstacle, questioning his ability to make peace and suggesting he could be bypassed by taking the peace plan directly to the Palestinian people. Kushner gives the impression of counting on ordinary citizens to promote his vision and evict Abbas. This explains why he marginalised the PA and has not considered the Palestinian leadership’s demands since the beginning of his initiative in 2017. In the end, Kushner knows that the PA will reject his plan and will fall into the trap of being accused of the failure of the ‘great deal’. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe most positive early assessment of Kushner’s plan would see it as a naive attempt to make something new with something old. The most negative would suggest it is highly cynical. But so far, the plan has mostly been written off as a \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/kushner-israeli-palestinian-peace-plan/563606/\u0022\u003efantasy\u003c/a\u003e. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5 style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eArab Peace Initiative hindered by old obstacles and new challenges \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eGiven the anti-Iranian obsession shared by Israel and Saudi Arabia (and similarly Abu Dhabi and Bahrain), one would think that now is the best moment to build on the 2002 Saudi-inspired Arab Peace Initiative. The initiative called for Israeli–Palestinian agreement on the establishment of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 lines with East Jerusalem as its capital, as well as territorial exchanges and a just, agreed-upon solution for the refugees. In return, all Arab nations would sign peace accords with Israel and establish full diplomatic relations. Reviving the 2002 proposal would certainly be laudable. However, the US plan is likely to rob the Arab Peace Initiative of its substance.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOne must recall that Israel rejected the initiative in 2002, and that Benyamin Netanyahu said in 2016 that he would never accept it as a basis for talks with Palestinians, as \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/pm-netanyahu-israel-cannot-agree-to-2002-arab-league-peace-plan-1.5395145\u0022\u003eit contained ‘obsolete things’\u003c/a\u003e such as the 1967 lines, the return of the Golan to Syria and the issue of the refugees. Other recent barriers to peace include Washington’s recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and the move of the US embassy to the city, as well as Israel’s recent Israeli ‘Jewish nation-state’ law, which declares Jerusalem the country’s ‘complete and united’ capital. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFurthermore, the great deal behind the Arab Peace Initiative which failed in 2002 is still unlikely to be of interest to the Israelis today. The normalisation of Arab relations with Israel, promised by the Arab league which officially endorsed the initiative, may represent a personal success for Benyamin Netanyahu – who wants to show the world that the fight against Iran has become a common priority and that no-one in the region cares about the Palestinians. But is he obliged to sign a peace agreement with the Palestinians to get Saudi Arabia’s support on the Iran issue? The answer is obviously no.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eNetanyahu knows that Israel can live without formal normalisation, and that the mere fact of nurturing doubts and rumours on an alleged Israeli–Saudi alliance has already been a victory for him, as he has convinced parts of Arab public opinion and the international media that Arab leaders no longer see the Palestinian issue as the “’mother of all wars’ in the Middle East. It does not matter to him that Iran and its allies (especially Hezbollah) are now becoming instruments for the frustration of the Palestinians. Or that King Salman had to \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180730-saudi-king-we-will-not-abandon-palestine/\u0022\u003ereiterate\u003c/a\u003e his political and financial support to the Palestinians, to stamp out speculation fuelled in part by the Crown Prince’s declarations and signs of openness to Israel. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eBenyamin Netanyahu probably \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2018/04/israel-saudi-arabia-king-salman-benjamin-netanyahu.html\u0022\u003edeluded himself\u003c/a\u003e by thinking that he could normalise his country’s relations with Saudi Arabia while refusing to compromise on the Palestinian issue. It is indeed too risky for the Saudis, as leaders of the Sunni world, to abandon the Palestinians and, above all, to capitulate on Jerusalem. US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital was opposed by Riyadh, but also by Amman (as the custodian of the holy sites in Jerusalem) and Cairo.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSaudi Arabia’s influential crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, made \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/mohammed-bin-salman-iran-israel/557036/\u0022\u003eunprecedented comments\u003c/a\u003e in April that Israelis have the right to live peacefully on their land – but it is the King who decides the Saudi position on the symbolic and strategic Israel–Palestine issue. With his Jerusalem \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2017/12/trump-jerusalem\u0022\u003e‘poisoned gift’\u003c/a\u003e, Donald Trump has undermined the Arabs’ ability to get publicly closer to Israel, and sabotaged his own ‘great deal’.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFinally, the Saudis do not have much leverage over the Palestinian leadership, which is weak, fragmented and has denounced the US as a \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.maannews.com/Content.aspx?id=779762\u0022\u003epeace broker\u003c/a\u003e. The US administration is therefore placing too much hope in Riyadh and King Salman as the pathway to Middle East peace.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5 style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eA shared interest in the status quo\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIsrael has always preferred to maintain the status quo because, as one writer puts it, \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/16/the-real-reason-the-israel-palestine-peace-process-always-fails\u0022\u003e\u0027the deal’s cost\u003c/a\u003e is much higher than the cost of making no deal\u0027. The country’s settlement policy in the West Bank and East Jerusalem has therefore continued, aiming to reach the point when the Israeli presence is irreversible. This policy of \u003cem\u003efait accompli \u003c/em\u003eis perfectly compatible with the US initiative because as long as there are ‘peace talks’ Israel can pursue its expansion. After the recognition of Jerusalem and the reconsideration of the consensual two-state solution, the US administration could now be tempted to succumb to another Israeli demand, recognising Israel’s sovereignty over the \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-israel-usa-exclu/exclusive-israeli-minister-says-us-may-soon-recognize-israels-hold-on-golan-idUSKCN1IO2YU\u0022\u003eGolan Heights\u003c/a\u003e. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSince 2017, Palestinians have been excluded from the preliminary talks conducted by the US ‘peace team’, who refused to meet with them during their latest visit in June. Mahmoud Abbas, whose political leadership is undeniably delegitimised, has chosen to bet on non-violent resistance (especially the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions movement) and the traditional international supporters of Palestine to shame and marginalise Israel. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIn reality, letting his people rely on protest movements and civil society representatives to express their frustration is Abbas’s only option. The recent media frenzy surrounding the release of Palestinian teen icon Ahed Tamimi, who served an eight-month sentence for slapping an Israeli soldier, highlights the sort of popular phenomenon \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/palestinians/.premium-palestinians-hope-for-thousands-more-ahed-tamimis-1.6319665\u0022\u003einspiring young Palestinians\u003c/a\u003e. They see the US plan as another biased initiative doomed from the start, and another sign that they must rely on themselves to defend their own interests. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_FG7p9JhrFEmTYcs5aIDZjg"))});
\u003cp\u003eThe US peace plan for Israel-Palestine has been dismissed as a work of fantasy - while attempts to revive the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative would face a host of challenges.\u003c/p\u003e
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