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Trump’s dangerous obsession with Iran  智库博客
时间:2018-08-13   作者: Steven Simon;Jonathan Stevenson  来源:International Institute for Strategic Studies (United Kingdom)
\u003cp\u003eThe Trump administration has no coherent Iran policy. In May, U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html\u0022\u003ewithdrew the United States\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)\u0026mdash;the Iran nuclear deal\u0026mdash;even though Iran was not in violation of it. Other than Trump\u0026rsquo;s uninformed and empty assertion that it was \u0026ldquo;the worst deal ever,\u0026rdquo; his pretext for the withdrawal was Iranian aggression in the region, which was not linked to the deal. In both his rhetoric and policy, Trump seems to be positioning the United States to enter into armed conflict with Iran,\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/world/middleeast/trump-threatens-iran-twitter.html\u0022\u003ewarning Iran in July\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;that it could face \u0026ldquo;consequences the likes of which few throughout history have ever suffered before.\u0026rdquo;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTrump apparently wishes not merely to contain Iran\u0026rsquo;s power but to roll back its regional presence, confining its influence to its borders, disarming it, and, by implication,\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/persian-gulf/2017-07-20/why-regime-change-iran-wouldnt-work\u0022\u003echanging its regime\u003c/a\u003e, given that these are constraints that Iran\u0026rsquo;s government could not tolerate for profound strategic and ideological reasons. Doing so would take a massive effort and likely entail another American war in the Middle East\u0026mdash;one that the president is not committed to fighting and would not have the popular support to pursue. Rather than a coherent strategy, Trump\u0026rsquo;s aggressive behavior reflects a strange and unhealthy obsession with Iran unwarranted by the actual threat it poses to the interests of the United States and its allies.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe risk now is that the United States could drift into a war with Iran in a fog of bombastic threats and jolting policy reversals even if there were no underlying interest in hostilities. But although Trump\u0026rsquo;s rhetoric is dangerous, his administration\u0026rsquo;s inordinate antagonism is rooted in a deeper inability, going all the way back to 1979, of the United States to\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2017-09-06/reset-iran-and-united-states\u0022\u003efind a way forward\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;with Iran. It is time for Washington to do so before it is too late.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eRead the full article in\u003c/em\u003e \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2018-08-13/trumps-dangerous-obsession-iran?cid=int-fls\u0026amp;pgtype=hpg\u0022\u003eForeign Affairs\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_jPrUFmmUnUWc7W4hFFnrLw"))});
The United States\u0026rsquo; treatment of Iran is deeply illogical. It\u0026rsquo;s time for Washington to find a way forward.

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