|
\u003cp\u003eFor all the commentary around the absence of ballistic missiles from North Korea’s 70th anniversary parade on Sunday, their non-appearance should not have come as a surprise. The parades for this particular anniversary do not traditionally feature in Pyongyang’s ballistic missile display playbook, irrespective of Western expectations. What was noteworthy, though, was that North Korea rolled out a surprising amount of newer conventional weaponry. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn North Korea, the founding of the nation on 9 September 1948 is celebrated annually as a national holiday. Whilst not commanding a large military parade through the capital every year, notable anniversaries have been honoured in this way. The \u003ca href=\u0022https://bit.ly/2MhL6Bi\u0022\u003e65th\u003c/a\u003e (2013), \u003ca href=\u0022https://bit.ly/2MikrEz\u0022\u003e60th\u003c/a\u003e (2008), \u003ca href=\u0022https://bit.ly/2Qk5GnR\u0022\u003e55th\u003c/a\u003e (2003) and \u003ca href=\u0022https://bit.ly/2x1Ti30\u0022\u003e50th\u003c/a\u003e\u003csup\u003e \u003c/sup\u003e(1998) anniversary parades had a common theme: lots of personnel, a sometimes limited selection of equipment and no ballistic missiles.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5\u003eRecent parades raised expectations\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe expectation that North Korea would use any opportunity to showcase its ballistic missiles is understandable. In the past 18 months there have been three large military parades (April 2017, October 2017 and February 2018) with ballistic missiles as key features. These parades also saw the introduction of new longer-range nuclear-capable missiles. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAll of these have been successfully \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2018/02/testing-north-korea\u0022\u003etested\u003c/a\u003e during the same period: the \u003cem\u003eHwasong\u003c/em\u003e-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile demonstrated that the US territory of Guam was now in range, whilst the theoretical range of the \u003cem\u003eHwasong\u003c/em\u003e-14 and \u003cem\u003eHwasong\u003c/em\u003e-15 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) extends to the US mainland.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat has changed since the last military parade is Pyongyang’s top-level diplomatic re-engagement with the United States and South Korea. Since then it has maintained a moratorium on testing long-range missiles (indeed, missiles of all ranges) and conducting further nuclear tests. There are however contradictory signals over denuclearisation and reports of continued nuclear weapons and ICBM production, as discussions with the US appear for now to have reached an impasse.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHence, Sunday’s large-scale military parade was seen as potentially offering a clearer signal of Pyongyang’s intentions. And the absence of any ballistic missiles – not just nuclear-capable ICBMs – was widely perceived as a calculated positive indicator, or at least not the provocative show of force some had predicted.\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_L4PAAkZEAk6EbOWBTe3A"))});
\u003cp\u003eBallistic missiles have traditionally been absent from North Korea\u0027s anniversary parades. What made this year\u0027s display different was the formidable conventional force on show.\u003c/p\u003e
|
