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\u003cp\u003eLate last month, the United States Navy conducted a freedom of navigation operation (Fonop) in the South China Sea. The USS Decatur, an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer, sailed into the 12 nautical mile zone of Gaven and Johnson reefs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThis was the eighth publicised Fonop under the Trump administration. But this Fonop near the reefs \u003cspan\u003e–\u003c/span\u003e which are artificial islands occupied by China \u003cspan\u003e–\u003c/span\u003e triggered more than the usual attention because of a near collision between the USS Decatur and a Chinese destroyer.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe incident took place at a time of growing tensions in US-China ties and is worrying because of the Chinese response. Whereas in the past, the Chinese would monitor, tail and issue messages to the US vessels on Fonop missions to leave the area, this time the CNS Lanzhou responded much more aggressively, at one point cutting dangerously across the USS Decatur\u0027s bow. The US warship was forced to quickly alter course to avoid being hit.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe encounter raises the concern that the Chinese would become more \u0022physical\u0022 in responding to what they see as US challenges to their sovereign rights. It comes also as other navies are joining the US to assert their freedom of navigation rights. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in June, France and Britain asserted their right to conduct patrols of the South China Sea. In August, China protested that the HMS Albion, an amphibious transport ship, had sailed within the territorial waters of the Paracels.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSeveral questions arise: What purpose do Fonops in the South China Sea serve at a time when tensions are escalating? Can things be done better as the Fonops do not seem to have any effect in halting China\u0027s island-building and expansive claims over the strategic waterway?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5\u003eLegal-technical challenges\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo begin within, Fonops are in essence legal and technical challenges to excessive maritime claims. They are used to pressure China diplomatically, and are not meant to be shows of military force.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn effect, US Fonops are meant to establish a pattern of American non-acquiescence to excessive claims. They would do little to stop China\u0027s island-building.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA failure to conduct Fonops, not only against China, but also against other states that the US deems to have excessive claims \u003cspan\u003e–\u003c/span\u003e and they include Vietnam and the Philippines as well \u003cspan\u003e–\u003c/span\u003e would lead to such states perpetuating their claims. It is unfortunate that a Fonop, a legal and technical instrument, runs the risk of military escalation in the South China Sea, as shown by the Decatur incident.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe advanced stage of negotiations between China and Asean to conclude a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea is to be welcomed. However, the COC remains dogged by questions over avenues for arbitration and geographical scope. And while it may be useful as a crisis management tool, it does nothing to address China\u0027s island-building.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMeanwhile, the much ballyhooed \u0022free and open Indo-Pacific\u0022 concept touted by Australia, Japan, India and the US stresses the need for the rule of law, freedom of navigation and maritime security. But it remains to be seen what the so-called \u0022Quad\u0022 of powers can do about China\u0027s challenge in the South China Sea.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBorrowing a term used by Admiral Harry Harris, the former commander of US Pacific Command, the Chinese remain ensconced behind their \u0022wall of sand\u0022 in the South China Sea. The Chinese have effectively cocked a snook at all the talk about a free and open Indo-Pacific.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn his new book, The Four Flashpoints: How Asia Goes To War, Australian professor Brendan Taylor deems Fonops \u0022largely ineffectual\u0022, given that China\u0027s growing weight in the South China Sea will soon turn the maritime area into a Chinese lake.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe US, he argues, would be better off shifting its deployments in the South China Sea to areas where the US enjoys \u0022situations of strength\u0022 and has vital interests, such as the Korean peninsula and the East China Sea.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSuch an argument is rather self-defeating. After all, Fonops and other freedom of navigation-related patrols have a use-it-or-lose-it quality \u003cspan\u003e–\u003c/span\u003e that is, if freedom of navigation rights are not asserted consistently, they will be lost over time.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMoreover, a retreat from the South China Sea would essentially destroy America\u0027s credibility across the region.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNo one can be sure if the Trump administration\u0027s more adversarial approach to China \u003cspan\u003e–\u003c/span\u003e involving a tit-for-tat trade war, the sale of military kit to Taiwan and an assessment that Beijing is a revisionist power \u003cspan\u003e–\u003c/span\u003e will lead to an all-out confrontation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat is known is that there are consequences when China remains unopposed in the South China Sea.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn a telling revelation, Admiral Jonathan Greenert, who was US chief of naval operations during the Obama administration, said that in his interactions with Admiral Wu Shengli, the commander of the People\u0027s Liberation Army Navy, the latter made clear that he thought the US would have presented a \u0022more forceful reaction\u0022 when China began its island-building.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhen such a reaction was not forthcoming, the island-building campaign continued apace, the admiral wrote in a recent paper published by the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBAR).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0022Regional countries have perceived the United States\u0027 slow and politicised response to Chinese activities (in the South China Sea) as having been insufficient to address the challenge,\u0022 wrote Adm Greenert, now the John M. Shalikashvili Chair in National Security Studies at the NBAR.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTo America\u0027s credit, the US has not been sitting idle. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue this year, US Secretary of Defence James Mattis said that the US had withdrawn its invitation for the People\u0027s Liberation Army Navy to take part in the Rim of the Pacific multilateral exercises. He warned of \u0022consequences that will come home to roost\u0022 if China ignored the international community on the South China Sea.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eLast Thursday, CNN reported that the US Pacific Fleet had tabled a classified proposal to carry out a show of force next month, with ships and aircraft operating in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait \u003cspan\u003e–\u003c/span\u003e and as a result draw close to Chinese forces.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIf carried out, such displays of force will complement other assertions of freedom of navigation made by Britain, France and Japan. More than that, they should be coupled with a \u0022hold\u0022 strategy, where the US seeks to deter China from grabbing other island features occupied by other claimant states, and militarising Scarborough Shoal, which China has occupied since 2012.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWhat then, if China pushes on despite these deterrent signals? The US can consider more sanctions (which are already in train, anyway), additional displays of force, or Fonops coordinated with other navies. The key is to give the Chinese cause for pause, by keeping them guessing what Washington would do.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePut together, this would restore some confidence in Uncle Sam\u0027s credibility among countries in the region. To be sure, there are risks involved in any pushback. But the message from a more assertive US could have the same effect as that issued by J.R.R. Tolkien\u0027s fictional wizard Gandalf to the Balrog in the Lord Of The Rings trilogy: You shall not pass. It saved the day for his companions and changed the course of events.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThis blog first appeared in the \u003ca href=\u0022www.straitstimes.com\u0022\u003eStraits Times\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_aumuWLkIYEWjh3jqAWhNQ"))});
Retreat from the South China Sea would destroy America\u0027s credibility across the region.
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