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\u003ch5\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan\u003eJordan and Syria recently re-opened their border crossing after a three-year closure. Has Jordan’s approach to the Syria crisis changed?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eJordan’s policy approach towards Syria has always been very pragmatic and based on the evolution of political realities on the ground. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIn 2011, King Abdullah II was among the first world leaders to advise Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to resign and pave the way for a peaceful transfer of power. In cooperation with the United States, Jordan gave military support to the Syrian opposition, especially to the groups affiliated with the Free Syrian Army in the south, but avoided becoming directly involved in the conflict. \u003cspan style=\u0022background: white;\u0022\u003eThe result was a careful stance, facilitating the training of and weapons transfers to vetted, mostly tribal, Syrian rebels through the CIA-led Military Operations Center in Amman, but resisting any efforts to directly intervene or open the border any further.\u003c/span\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAt the same time, Jordan took an active and visible role in the international coalition against the Islamic State that was founded in 2014, including by participating in air strikes. Its involvement \u003cspan style=\u0022background: white;\u0022\u003eincreased after the murder on Muath al-Kasasbeh, a Jordanian pilot captured by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, in early 2015. But as the tide turns against the Islamic State in Syria, Amman is anxious that the remnants of the ‘caliphate’ do not turn their attention to Jordan in the shape of homegrown sympathisers. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022background: white;\u0022\u003eSo far, \u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003eJordan has managed to balance essential international relationships while \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/jordan-s-smart-syria-strategy-1302117077\u0022\u003enever losing sight\u003c/a\u003e of its core security and domestic priorities. For this reason, Jordan held talks with Russia over a ceasefire and the implementation of a ‘de-escalation zone’ in southern Syria in 2017. But the Assad regime, assisted by the Russian air force and Shia militias, subsequently recaptured the southwestern provinces of Daraa, Quneitra and Suwayda after a massive military offensive in the summer of 2018. Since then, Jordan has continued to control its border to avoid a new influx of Syrian refugees, while accepting in October the need to re-open the Jaber–Nassib border crossing. The move has served to re-establish a vital commercial route between the two countries, upon which the regional economy depends. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eJordan remains concerned by Iran’s presence and influence in Syria. In June, Amman recalled its ambassador from Iran in protest over regional interference, and expressed no intention to appoint another envoy to Tehran. That same week, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait offered US$2.5 billion in aid for Jordan to ease its economic crisis following a wave of anti-austerity protests. \u003cspan style=\u0022background: white;\u0022\u003eJordan is, therefore, firmly in the US and Saudi Arabian regional camp, depending on them both economically and militarily, and has no desire to see Iranian proxies along its border. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan\u003eWhat are the main political and security challenges faced by Jordan today?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022background: white;\u0022\u003eA major challenge facing Jordan is the need to reinvigorate its domestic economy in a challenging environment. Jordan has always been torn between regional threats and internal socio-economic pressures. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAll economic indicators suggest that the Kingdom is at a critical juncture. The recent wave of protests forced the government to withdraw a controversial tax bill – imposed after a series of financial measures to lower the country’s public debt – and led to the resignation of the prime minister and his cabinet. The episode confirmed the fact that the Kingdom needs to design and implement a robust economic plan to address the crisis. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eBut it has also to regain the trust of the people as many have emphasised \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/99c63254/bi-brief-090418-cme-carnegie-jordan.pdf\u0022\u003ethe erosion of the ‘old social contract’\u003c/a\u003e and called for significant political reforms and anti-corruption measures. Jordan’s high unemployment rate (currently standing at 18.4%) and high dependency on external economic support pose a serious concern for its economic growth and social stability. Social disorder risks creating fertile ground for opposition groups (especially \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.arab-reform.net/en/node/1124\u0022\u003ethe Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood movement\u003c/a\u003e) and terrorist organisations, while social issues could also translate into major security concerns for Jordanian policymakers. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFurthermore, since 2011, Jordan has been directly affected by the spillover of the Syria and Iraq conflicts. For over seven years, Jordan has lived with armed conflict on its doorstep. It has hosted 670,000 registered Syrian refugees (around half of whom are children), while another 660,000 refugees reside in Jordanian territory but have not been officially registered. The vast majority, some 80%, now lives in cities and towns, while the remainder resides in two refugee camps. Zaatari has become the world’s second-largest camp, with close to 80,000 residents. The influx of refugees has put critical pressure on Jordan’s overstretched resources. Taken together with the two million Palestinian refugees that Jordan was already hosting, nearly 50% of the Kingdom’s population holds refugee status today.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIn the post-Arab Spring context, Jordan has also experienced several terrorist attacks, such as the six soldiers killed at the Syria–Jordan border in June 2016, and a series of shootings claimed by the Islamic State that killed ten people in the city of al Karak in December 2016. The August 2018 killing of four Jordanian security officers in a bomb attack followed by a police raid near Amman, served as a reminder that Jordan remains a target of jihadist groups.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003cimg alt=\u0022\u0022 height=\u0022600\u0022 width=\u0022866\u0022 src=\u0022/-/media/images/comment/analysis/2018/november/jordan-population-infographic-866x600.jpg?la=en\u0026amp;hash=A9678382F0FC195325DD4BD47A56547A8117EC90\u0022 /\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: white;\u0022\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_vRVkXiZiVUaiwngFzgncw"))});
Jordan has always been torn between regional threats and internal socio-economic pressures. Alongside its concerns over the Syria crisis and the Israel–Palestine conflict, a major challenge facing Jordan is the need to reinvigorate its domestic economy.
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