|
\u003cp\u003eIt is emerging from one of Africa\u0026rsquo;s longest conflicts, but can the Democratic Republic of the Congo\u0026rsquo;s (DRC) forthcoming presidential elections herald a new period of prosperity?\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: white;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs well as being the world\u0026rsquo;s top miner of cobalt and Africa\u0026rsquo;s leading copper producer, the DRC has a largely young population and immense economic potential. But it is also beset by internal conflicts \u0026ndash; with more than 70 armed groups operating throughout the country \u0026ndash; forcing millions of people to flee from their homes, an ongoing Ebola crisis and a long legacy of bad governance.\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: white;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eJoseph Kabila took office ten days after the assassination of his father and former president Laurent-D\u0026eacute;sir\u0026eacute; Kabila in 2001 and is still in office, well after his constitutional term ended in December 2016 and the country\u0026rsquo;s electoral commission postponed the elections. Since then, the DRC has teetered on the brink of violence.\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: white;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe election on 23 December will mark the fourth time that presidential polls have been held since the country\u0026rsquo;s independence from Belgium in 1960, but it will be only the first one to lead to a handover of leadership.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eChallenges ahead\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePrevious elections have led to widespread violence amongst opposition supporters, and there are fears that the December vote could see fresh outbreaks of unrest. Kabila\u0026rsquo;s re-election in 2011, when he defeated \u0026Eacute;tienne Tshisekedi, sparked violent rallies amid allegations of widespread voter fraud. If there is a significant outbreak of violence this time, there is a possibility that the country\u0027s courts will draw on a clause in the constitution (either article 70 or 76) to grant Kabila a further grace period, in theory to help stabilise the situation.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: white;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThere is also a risk of interference from armed groups, which have a history of causing disruption to further their agenda. In recent months, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) \u0026ndash; an armed group originally from Uganda that has killed hundreds of people since 2014 \u0026ndash; have launched attacks on civilians, hampering international efforts to contain the Ebola virus by preventing medical workers from reaching victims. It is feared that the ADF will do the same during and after the elections, particularly in Beni and Kivu.\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: white;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eCandidates running for the presidency will not, however, win votes according to their political credentials. Voting in the DRC, and within this part of Africa, is still about ethnicity and not about voting for the candidate with the most powerful manifesto. And the current government has failed to implement an official, common and beneficial political framework that facilitates cooperation and ethnic integration, thus further cementing divisions within the country.\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: white;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe contenders\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOf the 21 candidates in the presidential race, there are three main contenders: Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, whose candidacy has been endorsed by Kabila; Martin Fayulu; and Felix Tshisekedi.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eShadary, a former interior minister and Kabila loyalist who lacks a following of his own, is seen as a flawed candidate because of his strong ties to Kabila. Selected by the ruling People\u0027s Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (PPRD) and the Common Front for Congo (FCC) political coalition, Shadary is the subject of US and European Union sanctions owing to his role in the repression of the protests following the postponement of the presidential election, during which security forces killed scores of anti-government demonstrators.\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: white;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor many Congolese, he represents a continuation of Kabila\u0026rsquo;s reign. The selection of Shadary is seen as Kabila\u0026rsquo;s way of ignoring Western sanctions. Shadary is aligned with the eastern part of Congo, primarily Maniema, where he has the support of local groups and chiefs, as well as the political apparatus of the state that also controls the so-called National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFelix Tshisekedi, son of \u0026Eacute;tienne Tshisekedi and leader of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, is from the centre of DRC, where less than 10% of voters reside. Meanwhile, his coalition partner, Vital Kamerhe, is from South Kivu, in the eastern part of DRC. He has a strong supporter base in this region, as well as in Goma. Taken together, their following may not be strong enough to swing the election in their favour. Tshisekedi is seen as inexperienced.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe opposition coalition\u0026rsquo;s main candidate is Martin Fayulu. He is a former oil executive endorsed by Jean-Pierre Bemba, a former militia leader and Kabila\u0026rsquo;s ex-vice president, as well as Moise Katumbi, a business tycoon accused of training mercenaries to topple Kabila, who lives in exile in Belgium. Fayulu is from Kinshasa, and has support from the west and some eastern areas. During a recent rally in Lubumbashi, police are reported to have opened fire on his supporters resulting in the deaths of at least two of his supporters.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003ePolls in October found that voters favoured opposition leaders by 70%, with Tshisekedi leading at 36%, ahead of Kamerhe (17%) and Shadary (16%), giving a clear indication that the people of DRC are hungry for change.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cdiv class=\u0022highlight_panel\u0022\u003e\n\u003ch5\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eEnsuring fair elections\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAfter almost 18 years in power, Joseph Kabila was granted extra time in office when the country\u0026rsquo;s electoral commission postponed the elections in 2016. The body\u0026rsquo;s original concerns about election preparations have brought into question the readiness of the commission itself. A report by the Congo Research Group (CRG) found that the \u0026lsquo;delays in the organization of the elections were mainly orchestrated by the ruling coalition, via the CENI, the government and parliament\u0026rsquo;. The CRG noted two crucial concerns: the electoral roll and voting procedures.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMany voters do not know whether their names are on the electoral roll, meaning that there is a risk of election-day violence if omissions do become apparent.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eA further concern for voters is the introduction of touch-screen technology to record their votes for the first time. Dubbed \u0026lsquo;cheating machines\u0026rsquo; in some quarters, this technology is being introduced by CENI without consultation with opposition parties and civil-society groups. The decision to implement the technology was motivated by a need to \u0026lsquo;cut costs and speed up the counting of votes\u0026rsquo;. It is unclear how CENI will ensure a free vote, particularly in rural areas and without the interference of armed groups in conflict zones.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003c/div\u003e\n\u003ch5\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eIs Kabila biding his time?\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eKabila has not ruled out running for office again in 2023. The National Assembly passed a law granting immunity to former presidents for crimes committed while in office and providing them with a permanent security detail. The federal bureaucracy is packed with Kabila\u0026rsquo;s officials, including the judiciary and the military. The FCC, which has named Kabila as its \u0026lsquo;moral authority\u0026rsquo;, is an umbrella coalition made up of 15 groups and political parties, formed solely for the purpose of supporting Kabila\u0026rsquo;s chosen candidate.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eKabila\u0026rsquo;s move is nothing new to this part of the African continent. The President of Rwanda Paul Kagam\u0026eacute; and the President of Burundi Pierre Nkurunziza have also taken steps to change their national constitutions to stay in office beyond their term limits. Jos\u0026eacute; Eduardo dos Santos in Angola stepped down in 2017 after 38 years in power, while Denis Sassou N\u0027Guesso in the Republic of the Congo and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda have been in power for 30 or more years. It is unlikely that the regional parties will get involved and support the opposition, because their interests are best served by the status quo, their primary concern being to avoid fresh flows of refugees.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003ciframe src=\u0022https://iissstaticwebcontent.blob.core.windows.net/map2public/drc.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 style=\u0022border: 0px; width: 866px; height: 486px;\u0022\u003e \u003c/iframe\u003e\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003ca href=\u0022/publications/armed-conflict-database\u0022\u003eData source: IISS Armed Conflict Database\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch5\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe next leader\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h5\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNow more than ever is the time for the church and civil society to offer guidance and leadership in an effort to defuse tensions. While mobilisation by the church has been suppressed by the regime, the country\u0026rsquo;s clergy still has the capacity to help stabilise the country. It was instrumental in bringing people together to force Kabila not to run for a third term, and it also negotiated Kabila\u0026rsquo;s stay in power in 2016.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs parts of Beni and North Kivu are becoming increasingly violent, tensions are likely to rise quickly, particularly if the results prove controversial. The ability of the new government to bring the Congolese people together and engage them in a healthy discourse on issues such as the DRC\u0026rsquo;s reconstruction, the rule of law and economic development is dependent on strong leadership.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe list of challenges facing the country\u0026rsquo;s new leader is extensive. They will need to combat corruption, tackle youth unemployment, and peacefully resolve outstanding conflicts by bringing ethnic and rebel groups to the negotiating table. The new leadership will inherit a daunting legacy of bad governance by the Kabila regime, and will need to find some sort of accommodation between the elites who control the country\u0026rsquo;s finances, the army and a frustrated public.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe near-term future of the DRC is bleak \u0026ndash; post-election fighting on the streets is a given, while a full-scale armed conflict remains a possibility. Sadly, the reality is that none of the presidential candidates will be able to implement the kind of leadership that the people of DRC need for a stable democratic transition to take place.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_UyW0CdEDYkyyTH8YqIXQMQ"))});
\u003cspan style=\"background: white;\"\u003eThe DRC’s forthcoming presidential election will mark the first democratic handover of power since independence, but it will be far from peaceful. With the country teetering on the brink of violence, the list of challenges facing the country’s next leader is daunting. \u003c/span\u003e
|
|
