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\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOut of more than 20 African nations that will hold elections in 2019, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the first to see the results of their vote.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe announcement of an opposition candidate as the winner of the 2018 Congolese presidential election was certainly a surprise. This could represent the first smooth handover of power in the DRC\u0026rsquo;s history, or a very clever fix by outgoing president Joseph Kabila. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eTshisekedi won with 38.57%, or seven million votes, while \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/10/drc-election-results-analysis-implausible/\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003efrontrunner in the polls\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e Martin Fayulu received 6.4m votes. Fayulu had the powerful support of Kabila\u0026rsquo;s former vice president Jean-Pierre Bemba, and Moise Katumbi, a business tycoon living in exile in Belgium who was previously accused of training mercenaries to topple Kabila. Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, who was favoured by Kabila, got 4.4m votes.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eContesting the result\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFayulu has rejected the result, which bodes ill for the credibility of the election, and perhaps also for stability in the mineral-rich country. The \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/congo-opposition-leader-tshisekedi-wins-presidential-vote/2019/01/09/727d77ca-147e-11e9-ab79-30cd4f7926f2_story.html?noredirect=on\u0026amp;utm_term=.70b5ff5c6f54\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eCatholic Church\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e and the \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://twitter.com/giuliaparavicin/status/1083344246457946113\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eEpiscopalian Conference of the Congo\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e, both electoral observers, have released astonishing statements insisting that the results contradict their observations, and suggesting that they will cooperate with a lawful challenge to the results.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFayulu appears to be getting ready to contest the result legally, and has ten days to mount his challenge. He has claimed that the Cap pour le Changement (CACH) coalition party struck a deal with the Front Commun pour le Congo\u0026nbsp;(FCC), which is led by Shadary. He implied that the FCC knew Shadary was unlikely to win and so \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.reuters.com/article/us-congo-election/congo-opposition-leader-tshisekedi-clinches-surprise-win-in-presidential-election-idUSKCN1P30RO\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003edecided to promote Tshisekedi\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e instead. Given the disarray with which elections were held, there is plenty of ground on which to contest the outcome.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe organisation of the election was confused. Not only was the integrity of the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) questionable, but the body was denied many of the resources it would have needed to organise a credible election. Kabila\u0026rsquo;s government refused logistical help from the United Nations and insisted that they did not want help \u0026lsquo;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2018-08-07-drc-says-it-doesnt-want-logistical-support-from-un-for-this-years-elections/\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003efrom anyone\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u0026rsquo;, including frequent election observers such as the Carter Center and the European Union.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eCENI made the controversial decision to hold the vote on 100,000 \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.apnews.com/1764856db1b74c7790a05a65d7a9c5b0\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003evoting machines\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e imported from South Korea \u0026ndash; machines that were extremely expensive, unfamiliar to many voters and which tests showed were prone to malfunction.\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIn addition, presidential, parliamentary and provincial elections were to be held together. Matters were made significantly worse by a \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/13/africa/congo-fire-destroys-voting-machines/index.html\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003ewarehouse fire\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e that burned between 7,000 and 8,000 of the machines due to be used in Kinshasa two weeks before the vote. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOn 23 December, CENI announced it was going to postpone the vote by a week. Three days later, it said that three constituencies affected by Ebola and violence (Beni, Butembo and Yumbi) would not participate in the vote. While they would elect their provincial representatives in March 2019, they would be effectively excluded from the presidential vote, a decision that was met with heavy protests in the regions.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eElection irregularities\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eYet the vote went ahead, albeit with myriad irregularities recorded by observers from SYMOCEL, a coalition of civil society groups, and the Catholic and Episcopalian churches. Observers from the African Union (AU) and the South African Development Committee (SADC) have yet to make conclusive remarks. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSources from within the FCC claim the elections were delayed to allow talks between Tshisekedi\u0026rsquo;s CACH coalition party, in order to negotiate an outcome favourable to Kabila and the FCC.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eA critical factor in what happens next will be the reaction of the international observation bodies to the result. The AU and the SADC will be wary of damaging their credentials by appearing to concede to an evidently flawed vote too easily. On the other hand, they will want to avoid pitting opposition supporters against each other and igniting instability and violence.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe recent announcement by France and Belgium, who are challenging the outcome of the presidential elections, will not support the transition to peace that the DRC needs at this volatile moment.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eKabila\u0026rsquo;s escape ticket\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eKnowing the true choice of the Congolese people is more or less impossible, seeing as an estimated \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://africanarguments.org/2019/01/03/drc-elections-sadc-au-moment-truth/\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003e16 million\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e voters ended up being excluded due to electoral irregularities. But whether Tshisekedi won the election fairly or not, there is little question that he is Kabila\u0026rsquo;s second choice of successor now that Shadary has patently lost.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eTshisekedi is now declaring Kabila to be a \u0026lsquo;partner\u0026rsquo; in democratic change, and not an enemy. And Tshisekedi is clearly Kabila\u0026rsquo;s second-best option. Fayulu made evident his determination to destroy Kabila\u0026rsquo;s patronage networks and expose the inner workings of his regime.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eKabila is fearful of reprisals for the actions of his time in power \u0026ndash; reprisals which would be far more likely to happen with Fayulu in power. Conceding to a more conciliatory opposition candidate is his best chance of escaping prosecution, or worse.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch4\u003eChallenges ahead\u003c/h4\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAll that is clear now is that Kabila\u0026rsquo;s time to leave has come, and whoever succeeds him faces formidable challenges. For there to be peace and stability in the DRC the next leader will need to control the political elites, the army and possible civilian unrest. It will require strong leadership and an ability to bring the Congolese people together and engage them in a healthy discourse on issues such as the DRC\u0026rsquo;s reconstruction, the rule of law and economic development. Armed groups in eastern Congo, land conflict and ethnic tensions, an Ebola crisis and resource redistribution are but a few of the key challenges the next president will face. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFor now, there is still a long way to go before the DRC completes a peaceful transfer of power. It will need support from neighbouring countries, and an African-led solution to secure peace and security throughout the country and the wider continent.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTo find out more about the election in the DRC, join the authors in London or online for an interactive discussion on \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.iiss.org/events/2019/01/elections-conflict-peace-drc\u0022\u003eWednesday 16 January\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e \u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_OipDU9QRtEergLRzhN2EDg"))});
\u003cp\u003eFelix Tshisekedi has beaten his rivals to win the presidential election in the DRC. However, amid claims of election rigging and irregularities, the race is far from won, argue Andrew Tchie and Eleanor Beevor.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e
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