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\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eAustralian Defence Minister Christopher Pyne is a pocket of energy when he speaks. Addressing delegates at the 2019 Fullerton Forum last month, he kept his audience enthralled, detailing Canberra\u0027s plans for the South Pacific, its relations with Asean and a list of new equipment buys for the Australian military.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eHis disarming yet engaging style has not escaped the attention of news hacks Down Under. There is a YouTube channel titled Pyne Watch, satirising how the minister whistles to himself before press briefings. He is portrayed as \u0022The Fixer\u0022 who gets things done.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eWriting in these pages recently, however, Professor Hugh White casts \u0022The Fixer\u0022 in a different light. Mr Pyne was said to have gone silent, making only a \u0022single perfunctory mention of Australia\u0027s alliance with America, and no specific mention at all of an American leadership role in upholding the Asian regional order or managing the tensions and dangers that arise from its escalating rivalry with China\u0022.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eMr Pyne\u0027s omission of America\u0027s leading role in his speech was significant, he wrote, because it stood in stark contrast to a 2017 address by then Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop, who urged the US to play a greater role in the region and offered fulsome support for the liberal rules-based order it upholds.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eIs it the case then that Canberra is having second thoughts, putting a distance between its long-time ally amid changing geopolitical dynamics in the region, with China on the rise and the Trump-induced upheavals in Washington?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eNot quite. It should be noted that in his speech, Mr Pyne welcomed Washington\u0027s \u0022importance and presence\u0022 in promoting the \u0022norms and principles that have underpinned\u0022 the region\u0027s prosperity and security.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eCanberra, he added, was \u0022strengthening existing partnerships, most importantly our Alliance with the United States\u0022.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eDuring the question-and-answer session, Mr Pyne welcomed the engagement of the US in the Indo-Pacific and stressed the reintroduction of the so-called \u0022Quad\u0022 of democracies comprising Australia, Japan, India and the US - seen as a mechanism to peg back the challenge posed by China.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eProf White says that even Canberra\u0027s most devoted loyalists to the US alliance must ask themselves whether simply backing America is a viable option for navigating the troubled times ahead.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eDouble Hedge\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eHis framing of the question is spot on, but the reality is more complicated. It is not an \u0022either-or\u0022 choice between China and the US.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eCaught between China and the US, regional countries - including Australia - have sought to avoid stark choices. Essentially, they have carried out a double hedge. They hedge against China\u0027s rise by seeking American guarantees. But they also hedge against American decline or withdrawal by seeking Chinese economic opportunities.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eMr Pyne outlined this clearly in the question-and-answer segment, when he highlighted Australia\u0027s role as being able to talk to both China and the US \u0022openly and frankly\u0022.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eHe added: \u0022We regard the US as our closest ally in the world, but we don\u0027t believe we need to choose between security (US) and prosperity (China)… Sovereignty and prosperity don\u0027t need to be linked in terms of their relationship with the great powers in the region.\u0022\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eThe double hedge, denial of choice approach is evident in Australia\u0027s relations with China.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eWhile Canberra is a staunch US military ally, it has participated in China\u0027s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Yet, Canberra has not shied away from taking a principled approach towards China.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eIn fact, 2018 was not exactly a very good year for Sino-Australian relations. Last year, Canberra passed legislation to limit the influence of foreign actors in domestic affairs, this led to Chinese-Australian tycoon Huang Xiangmo being stripped of his permanent residency recently.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eLast April, Australian warships were challenged by Chinese warships in the South China Sea. Mr Pyne\u0027s outlining of Canberra\u0027s A$2 billion (S$1.94 billion) Pacific Maritime Security Programme in the South Pacific, and US-Australia plans to redevelop the Lombrum naval base in Papua New Guinea, are seen as not-so-discreet pushback against Chinese influence in that region.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eThe Australian approach is not unique. Singapore, a major security partner of the US, upgraded its free trade agreement with China in November and is China\u0027s top destination for BRI investments. Yet, Singapore has not shied away from singling China out. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue last year, Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen said that China\u0027s activities in the South China Sea had deviated from global norms.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eThe same applies to Japan, which has sought to work with China on regional infrastructure projects. Yet Tokyo has sought to use its \u0022free and open Indo-Pacific\u0022 strategy to seek to manage China\u0027s rise.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eThe Quad\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eThe Indo-Pacific strategy being proffered by the \u0022Quad\u0022 countries of Australia, Japan, India and the US calls on the region to support high principles such as free and open sea lanes, maritime security, and support for international law.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eDuring the question-and-answer session, Mr Pyne spoke about how he saw the re-formation of the Quad. He said: \u0022(It is) not aimed at any country but simply because we have shared interests. We are four democracies, and we believe in the expansion of the international rules-based order\u0022.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eThe \u0022rules-based order\u0022 has been flagged by various analysts as code for US-led regional primacy. Seen in that context, Mr Pyne\u0027s exposition on the Quad sends the message that America continues to have a vital regional role in managing the rise of China.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eThere is no doubt that countries in the Asia-Pacific fret about America\u0027s decline or withdrawal. There is also no doubt that regional countries have to engage China.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eBut this is not yet the time to make stark choices.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eThucydides Trap\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eIf anything, the so-called Thucydides Trap clash between rising power China and resident power America is not inevitable.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eIn an extensive takedown of the concept, historian Arthur Waldron notes that no such \u0022trap\u0022 exists in the Greek text of the History of the Peloponnesian War. America did not strike out at rising Japan in 1941; neither did France, Russia and England against Germany in the 1930s. Professor Waldron argues that it\u0027s \u0022far more likely\u0022 that there will be no \u0022destined\u0022 war between China and America.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eGranted, regional countries cannot have their cake and eat it.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eAt some point, there might be a reckoning, particularly given the Trump administration\u0027s confrontational approach towards China.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eUS allies such as Australia would again have to make hard choices as and when tensions in the Taiwan Strait escalate (In 2004, Australia said that Canberra\u0027s alliance with the US did not apply to Taiwan).\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eAustralia has also in the past embedded a naval ship with the US Seventh Fleet in Fukuoka. This could mean that it could be drawn into hostilities if the Sino-Japanese dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands escalates.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eA US Navy admiral once distilled the conundrum beautifully - in not choosing sides, regional countries are walking a tightrope between China and the US that has become thinner.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eIs it decision time then?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eTo borrow the words of Sir Humphrey Appleby, the wily mandarin in the storied Yes Prime Minister satire: Ideas about making stark choices will be taken up \u0022at the appropriate juncture, in due course, in the fullness of time.\u0022\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003e\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003chr /\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; margin: 0cm 0cm 15pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003eWilliam Choong is a Shangri-La Dialogue senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #7a7a7a;\u0022\u003eA version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Straits Times on February 19, 2019, with the headline \u0027Sino-Aussie ties: Still walking the thinning tightrope\u0027. \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.straitstimes.com/print-edition\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #235ab4;\u0022\u003ePrint Edition\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e | \u003ca rel=\u0022noopener noreferrer\u0022 href=\u0022https://www.sphsubscription.com.sg/eshop/?r=products/newsubscriptionpackages\u0026amp;pcode=st\u0026amp;utm_campaign=st_subscription\u0026amp;utm_medium=web\u0026amp;utm_source=st\u0026amp;utm_content=subscribetext-endofarticle\u0026amp;utm_term=sino-aussie-ties-still-walking-the-thinning-tightrope\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #235ab4;\u0022\u003eSubscribe\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_GywLQfxS30SorTYhHqUdQw"))});
Far from distancing itself from its long-time alliance with the US in favour of China\u0027s geopolitical sway, Australia walks a deliberately ambiguous line. It remains to be seen how long it can do so.
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