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\u003cp\u003eJust five hours before polling stations were due to open for Nigeria’s presidential and parliamentary elections on 16 February, the country’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that the poll would be postponed by a week, until 23 February.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eExplaining the move – which was condemned by both leading parties, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People\u0027s Democratic Party (PDP) – the INEC said it would provide an ‘opportunity to address identified challenges in order to maintain the quality of [the] elections’. It also reiterated its ‘determination to conduct free, fair and credible elections’.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eGovernorship, State House of Assembly and Federal Capital Area council elections were also delayed by a week and are now expected on 9 March. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003e\u003cspan\u003eWhat is the public mood following the postponement of the elections?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eNeedless to say, people are unhappy or, rather, even unhappier than they were before. Amid a proliferation of fake news and election-related violence, in recent weeks INEC offices have been set on fire and in some states there has been a shortage of election materials. Parties are accusing one another of meddling with the vote, whilst appealing to their supporters – many of whom had to travel long distances to cast their ballots – to remain calm.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOf the 70 candidates in the race, the leading two – incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari (APC), who currently has an edge in the polls, and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar (PDP) – both come with serious ‘baggage’. Buhari has a poor record in terms of stimulating economic performance and militants in the Niger Delta region have threatened to resume attacks on the country’s oil infrastructure if he is re-elected. Abubakar, meanwhile, stands accused of engaging in corruption. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThis is not an easy choice. Identity politics, guided by ethnicity, religion and provenance, are usually pivotal in Nigerian elections. This time, however, voters cannot fall back on such identifiers: both men are Muslim Fulani northerners.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eHow would you assess the record of current president, Muhammadu Buhari?\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBuhari’s election in 2015 came with high expectations. He had a reputation, dating back to his military years and his short-lived first presidential term in the 1980s, as a disciplinarian determined to eradicate corruption and turn the page on the insecurity in the north. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHis predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, had long failed to acknowledge the magnitude of the Boko Haram insurgency and left it, frankly, too late in the day to launch a major offensive. The postponement of the 2015 elections on security grounds was a poorly disguised attempt to buy time for a last-minute military offensive that eventually failed to deliver on its mission: Jonathan’s re-election. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eFor their part, fellow Muslim northerners had high hopes that Buhari would not neglect them in the same way previous PDP administrations had. Even though he implemented changes to the country’s public administration systems and strengthened security cooperation with neighbouring Lake Chad basin partners, shrinking Boko Haram’s area of operations, Buhari’s image was tarnished by delays in making cabinet appointments, extended periods of medical absence abroad, economic recession and a flaring up of violent tensions between farmers and pastoralists in the Middle Belt and beyond. Indeed, the intensity of the clashes between farmers and pastoralists reached such levels that the IISS determined in mid-2018 that they should be included in its \u003cspan\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.iiss.org/publications/armed-conflict-database\u0022\u003eArmed Conflict Database\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e (ACD).\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eThe 2014 abduction of a large group of Chibok girls gained widespread media attention, but how would you assess the operational strength and rhetorical power of Boko Haram and its affiliates now?\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eOver the past couple of years Nigerian government sources have repeated, on multiple occasions, that Boko Haram has been ‘technically defeated’. Sadly, ACD monitoring shows that Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) faction remain formidable adversaries, capable of orchestrating coordinated and deadly attacks. This was clearly demonstrated by the attacks that took place in Borno and Yobe states in late December 2018, which resulted in intense fighting over several days and the displacement of thousands of civilians. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAs a result, the UK government has advised against all but necessary travel to Adamawa, Borno, Gombe and Yobe states owing to the worsening situation. ISWAP’s temporarily successful attempts to control towns such as Baga, which was liberated in 2015, are also a concerning trend. ISWAP has relentlessly attacked military bases, whereas Boko Haram remains infamous for the targeting of civilians and the deployment of female suicide bombers. The use of the latter resumed in November 2018 following an apparent three-month pause.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eWhat do you see as the main economic challenges facing the next Nigerian president?\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eNigeria remains the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa, yet Buhari’s presidency witnessed the slowest growth levels in living memory and a recession in 2016. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eInequality is deepening. Despite being home to Africa’s richest man, \u003cspan\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.forbes.com/africa-billionaires/list/#tab:overall\u0022\u003eAliko Dangote\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e, in 2018 Nigeria overtook India as the country with the highest number of people living in \u003cspan\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://edition.cnn.com/2018/06/26/africa/nigeria-overtakes-india-extreme-poverty-intl/index.html\u0022\u003eextreme poverty\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e: some 87 million Nigerians survive on less than $1.90 a day – that is around 50% of the population. A large majority is based in northern states where literacy levels and access to schools are also the lowest in the country.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/312125-just-in-nigeria-recorded-2-38-gdp-growth-in-fourth-quarter-of-2018.html\u0022\u003eEconomic growth\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e in the last quarter of 2018 saw an improvement: from 1.81% in Q3 (in real terms) to 2.38% at the end of the year. This improvement, which was not foreseen in projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, should not divert attention away from remaining concerning trends. \u003cspan\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.ft.com/content/bc74b71a-2628-11e9-8ce6-5db4543da632\u0022\u003eUnemployment\u003c/a\u003e\u003c/span\u003e is rising sharply: from around 8% when Buhari took office to just over 23% in the third quarter of 2018. Young people are the worst affected: over 50% of them are either out of work altogether or underemployed. This has important social, economic and security implications that will blight the next president unless he can get a better grip on the economy.\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_LRCA2znrDUezintT7eUxjg"))});
\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAs Nigeria’s voters head to the polls this weekend, Virginia Comolli explains the country’s key governance challenges. With inequality growing across the nation, the next president will need to get a firmer grip on the economy and security situation.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e
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