|
\u003cp\u003eThe 24 February \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-launches-cruise-missile-from-submarine-during-drill/2019/02/24/cf0d8ba6-37fb-11e9-8375-e3dcf6b68558_story.html?utm_term=.96f99c83501f\u0022\u003elaunch\u003c/a\u003e of a cruise missile from an Iranian submarine portends a significant increase in the risk calculus of ships, both military and civilian, that routinely sail in the Arabian Gulf. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eMillions of barrels of oil exit through the Strait of Hormuz each day en route to India, China, Japan and other nations who rely on imported petroleum products to fuel their economies. Of equal regional importance are the tonnes of food and goods that sail into the Gulf to support thriving populations. Stability in the Gulf is an ongoing global concern and the introduction of submarine-launched cruise missiles from indigenously produced Iranian submarines challenges the stability of the maritime environment. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt is important to bear in mind that Iran’s professed military improvements – usually backed up with video that is of suspect origin and accuracy – often prove to be less successful than first claimed. While that may or may not prove to be the case here – as experts review the provided video of the launch – the likelihood that Iran has developed and tested a submarine-launched cruise missile capability should concern any who find Gulf stability of interest.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eIran’s asymmetric naval capabilities\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIran operates several classes of submarines – Russian-produced \u003cem\u003eKilo\u003c/em\u003e craft, North Korean-designed but indigenously produced \u003cem\u003eGhadir \u003c/em\u003esubmarines, and Iranian-designed and -produced \u003cem\u003eQaeem\u003c/em\u003e, \u003cem\u003eFateh\u003c/em\u003e and \u003cem\u003eNahang \u003c/em\u003eboats. The 24 February demonstration purportedly involved a\u003cem\u003e Fateh\u003c/em\u003e submarine launching a version of the \u003cem\u003eNasr\u003c/em\u003e-1 anti-ship missile, itself a copy of the Chinese C-704. The \u003cem\u003eNasr\u003c/em\u003e-1 has a range of about 30km and can cripple ships of up to about 1,500 tonnes, such as a corvette or coastal merchant ship. The successful production and employment of an Iranian produced anti-ship cruise missile from an Iranian-produced submarine is a significant event that potentially challenges the stability of the entire Gulf region.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe \u003cem\u003eFateh \u003c/em\u003esubmarine is not an enormously capable craft. Iran has a limited number in service, and it’s not clear whether every \u003cem\u003eFateh\u003c/em\u003e it intends to produce will possess a cruise-missile capability. But the Gulf is a small and crowded maritime space and not a friendly body of water for conducting anti-submarine warfare. The environment favours relatively small diesel submarines with a limited capability to attack surface ships, and the introduction of that capability by Iran is a matter of concern. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eConventional wisdom has it that Iran would not be well served and has no desire to become involved in a direct confrontation with the United States in the Gulf. While that may ultimately be true, its activities are suggestive of a regime that is skillfully plotting to challenge the US’s maritime dominance in the Gulf and to ensure regime survival in the event of a major confrontation with the US and coalition nations in the region. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eAside from the latest development of a submarine-launched anti-ship missile, Iran is modernising its air-defence capabilities through the acquisition of an advanced, Russian-produced S-300 air-defence system, improving its over-the-horizon surveillance capabilities – especially through the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, and continuing its acquisition of high-speed craft for use in anti-ship swarm tactics. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt is certain that in the long run Iran cannot control the Gulf, nor defeat a concerted US-led coalition effort to ensure the stability of the region and the successful conduct of global commerce. But that is not to say that the regime can’t generate a threat or negatively impact the vital global trade routes of the Gulf. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIran’s ability to attack merchant vessels – not as it did during the 1980s Tanker Wars with mines and long-range (and poorly aimed) surface-to-surface missiles, but with short-range submarine-launched anti-ship missiles – is a potential game changer and a capability that deserves attention.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIt is important to note that Iran has apparently produced a submarine capable of launching an anti-ship cruise missile while being subject to decades of international sanctions designed to limit its ability to project power. The US, United Nations and European Union should consider what this significant accomplishment portends and develop a comprehensive strategy for moving forward. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eWake-up call\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was designed to limit Iranian nuclear-weapons development, but it failed to include restrictions on ballistic-missile development (covered in an existing UN resolution) and malign Iranian behaviour throughout the region. The lack of a truly comprehensive approach to Iranian activity and intentions was the primary reason the Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear deal – regardless of the wisdom of doing so. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe demonstration of yet another weapon that threatens maritime security should motivate all parties invested in stability in the region to monitor closely Iranian arms-development and military activities, to better study and understand Tehran’s long-term ambitions, and to develop strategies and capabilities to counter Iran’s prolific asymmetric-military advances. This need applies to all facets of Iran’s activities that destabilise the region, not just those in the maritime domain. \u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIran’s latest military demonstration serves as a wake-up call: Iran continues to build capacity to match its intentions to genuinely and negatively impact stability in the Gulf region.\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_409y0pi2UUyjahUMCwE2Aw"))});
\u003cp\u003eIran\u0026rsquo;s claim to have successfully launched an anti-ship cruise missile from an indigenously produced submarine is a significant event that potentially challenges the stability of the entire Gulf region. It should be a wake-up call to all parties with an interest in maintaining such stability.\u003c/p\u003e
|
