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\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003cbr /\u003eOn 11 April, the first of seven\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003erounds of voting in the world’s largest elections takes place, with India’s electorate of 900 million choosing its central government for the next five years. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the favourite to lead the next coalition government as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) once again. However, if the NDA fails to gain a clear win when votes are counted on 23 May, India’s regional parties will play a crucial role in any post-poll BJP-led coalition government.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan\u003eParty politics\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe BJP is determined to return to power for a second five-year term in order to complete the transformation of its ‘New India’. It is likely to emerge as the largest party in the Lok Sabha (the lower house of parliament) for three reasons.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFirstly, there is the continuing high popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in the absence of any alternative national leadership. Rahul Gandhi, leader of the principal opposition party Indian National Congress or INC, is not staking a claim to become the next prime minister.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe second reason is the delivery of key social services. To the economically weaker sections of society, this includes the opening of 330m bank accounts to cut off the extortionist ‘middleman’; the electrification of all villages; legislation for a 10% job quota for government positions; and for women voters in particular, the provision of cleaner liquid petroleum gas cylinders for cooking instead of kerosene, and the construction of toilets within homes.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThirdly, the BJP has crafted a powerful narrative on national security, with a focus on combatting terrorism and a hardline policy towards Pakistan. This is supported by India’s recent bold retaliatory airstrike on a terror training camp in Balakot on 26 February – the first attack that India has carried out against mainland Pakistan, rather than across the Line of Control in the disputed Kashmir region, since the two countries became nuclear powers in 1998. This narrative appeals to a strong sense of patriotism among first-time voters (comprising nearly 10% of the electorate), as does the rise of India’s global standing.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIn contrast, the INC is determined that the combination of Modi and BJP President Amit Shah should not return in the next government, even if the NDA is successful. The INC itself has minimal chances of forming the next coalition government, although it is likely to have the largest number of seats after the BJP in the next Lok Sabha.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe INC views this election as an ideological battle against the authoritarian rule of the BJP and a rise in religious intolerance that has alienated the large Indian Muslim community. It has also strongly criticised Modi’s controversial 2016 ‘demonetisation’ (banning 86% of currency notes); the flawed implementation of the long-awaited uniform Goods and Services Tax in 2017; unemployment levels, reported to have risen to its highest level in 45 years in 2017–2018;\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003eand\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003ethe economic distress of farmers.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe numbers game\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eA party and its coalition partners require a majority of 272 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha in order to form a government. In the last general election in 2014, the BJP won 282 seats (compared to the INC’s 44 seats). The formation of the next government will be determined by the BJP’s results in three of India’s most populous states: Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Bihar, accounting for 168 or nearly 31% of the total seats. In 2014, the BJP had won 116 of these seats, accounting for over 40% of its total. But in the absence in the campaign so far of the pro-Modi wave that the BJP rode to success last time, this number is likely to be reduced, resulting in serious implications for the party.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIn India’s largest state of Uttar Pradesh, the BJP had won 71 of 80 seats in 2014. Its two main regional opposition parties – the Samajwadi Party (SP) of Akhilesh Yadav and Kumari Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) – although bitterly opposed to each other have, for the first time, formed a pre-poll \u003cem\u003egathbandhan\u003c/em\u003e (alliance) against both the BJP and the INC. In both Maharashtra and Bihar, the BJP had to give a larger number of seats to its NDA allies, the Janata Dal (United) party (JD(U)) and the Shiv Sena party, respectively. The BJP is also likely to lose seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (where it lost local Legislative Assembly elections to the INC last December), as well as in Gujarat – in 2014 it had won 88 of the combined 91 Lok Sabha seats. In four of the five southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana), accounting for 129 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP has little traction. Indeed, if the BJP/NDA were to suffer such losses and fall substantively short of the half-way mark in the Lok Sabha, regional parties would play a crucial role in any new BJP-led coalition government.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003ePotentially influential regional figures include Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy (the Youth, Labour and Farmer Congress Party), K. Chandrashekar Rao (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) and M. Thambidurai (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam). In addition, there is West Bengal’s Mamata Banerjee (All India Trinamool Congress) and Andhra Pradesh’s N. Chandrababu Naidu (Telugu Desam Party) – although they are also currently ideologically opposed to the BJP, both have served in previous BJP governments.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_7ql5k7XoMUeYQxKqm0hX9Q"))});
With the first round of voting in India\u0027s general election approaching, Rahul-Roy Chaudhury explains the reasons why the Bharatiya Janata Party are likely to secure a second term.
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