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Turkish defence exports to 2023: grand ambitions  智库博客
时间:2019-04-10   作者: Yvonni-Stefania Efstathiou;Tom Waldwyn  来源:International Institute for Strategic Studies (United Kingdom)
\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eTurkey has announced another year of growing defence and aerospace export sales but it is still nowhere near its goal of US$25 billion per annum by 2023. In 2018, export sales were less than 10% of the claimed ambition. This, however, should not detract too much from the progress Turkey’s defence industry is making in the export arena.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAt the start of 2019, Undersecretary for the Defence Industry Directorate Ismail Demir said Turkish defence and civil aerospace exports for 2018 were \u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://twitter.com/IsmailDemirSSB/status/1081265914195181569\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003e17%\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e up on the previous year, reaching a record US$2.035bn. For the best part of a decade, the Turkish government has set itself the daunting target of hitting an annual defence and civil aerospace sales and services export target of US\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.memurlar.net/haber/487626/savunma-sanayii-mustesari-2023-hedeflerini-anlatti.html\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003e$25bn\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan\u003e by 2023. ‘Defence’ and ‘security’ exports are supposed to constitute US$5bn each of the total.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSince Turkey does not provide a breakdown by sub-sector for defence and aerospace exports, it is difficult to know just how close Ankara is from its goals in each subcategory. The US$5bn ‘defence’ export sales ambition is credible. However, growing the entire ‘defence and aerospace’ sector by a factor of 12 in the next five years is less so.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003ciframe class=\u0022highcharts-iframe\u0022 src=\u0022https://cloud.highcharts.com/embed/DcnYCip3E/\u0022 style=\u0022border: 0; width: 100%; height: 450px;\u0022\u003e\u003c/iframe\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cspan style=\u0022color: red;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003eWhile the official targets are confusing, what is clear is the progress Turkey is making towards becoming a significant defence exporter.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cstrong\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: red;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/strong\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003eTurkish export successes\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cspan style=\u0022color: red;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003eTurkish defence exports over the past decade have typically been of wheeled armoured vehicles. Hundreds of BMC’s \u003cem\u003eKirpi\u003c/em\u003e 4x4 patrol vehicle have been sold to Tunisia and Turkmenistan, while Otokar’s \u003cem\u003eCobra\u003c/em\u003e 4x4 armoured personnel carrier is now in service with countries such as Bahrain, Bangladesh, Mauritania and Rwanda.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cspan style=\u0022color: red;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003eWhilst the quantity of vehicles exported during this time is noteworthy, these are relatively simple and inexpensive systems, with many companies around the globe offering similar products in what is a crowded market.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cspan style=\u0022color: red;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003eDefence-export contracts signed over the last 12 months, however, reflect the growing capability of the Turkish defence industry. Frigates, attack helicopters and armed uninhabited aerial vehicles are more complex than armoured vehicles and require a larger supply chain, as well as a more demanding post-sales logistics and support service. These systems are now being produced in Turkey, where companies such as ASELSAN, HAVELSAN and Roketsan produce combat systems and guided weapons. Despite this, significant industrial capability gaps continue in areas such as marine and aircraft propulsion and in radars.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cspan style=\u0022color: red;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003eStatic customer base\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cspan style=\u0022color: red;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: justify;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #000000;\u0022\u003eIf the nature of the technology being exported is changing, the customer base is largely the same. Of the 13 countries Turkey has reported delivering armoured vehicles to since 2010, 11 are both Muslim and diplomatically friendly. These include Bahrain, Tunisia and Turkmenistan. Similarly, the major contract signings of 2018 (see table) are also with longstanding allies, Pakistan and Qatar. To date, Turkey has not been able to match its success  in exporting defence equipment to Muslim nations elsewhere in the world. For example, Turkey has yet to secure any significant defence exports to fellow NATO members.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cimg alt=\u0022\u0022 src=\u0022-/media/project/default-images/default_image_866x486/turkey-exports-table.ashx?la=en\u0026amp;mw=865\u0026amp;hash=71E45238F3DE1F208CBD00B9F22FBB424DDD1564\u0022 sc-part-of=\u0022field\u0022 class=\u0022scEnabledChrome\u0022 /\u003e\n\u003cspan style=\u0022color: red;\u0022\u003e\u003c/span\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_tzMDe8Kn5Umf5o2GpJXXw"))});
\u003cp\u003eTurkey\u0026rsquo;s growing defence industry is making significant progress in the export arena. However, the industry still faces a number of challenges, write Yvonni-Stefania Efstathiou and Tom Waldwyn.\u003c/p\u003e

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