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\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eA year after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), denying Iran the sanctions relief quid pro quo for accepting nuclear limits, Tehran on 8 May responded in the most modest way that was politically possible.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOn one side, Trump’s massive pressure campaign sought to zero out Iran’s oil exports, deny its access to the international financial and insurance systems, outlaw the cream of its armed forces and restrict the civil nuclear cooperation that had been permitted by the deal. On the other, Iran simply announced it would build up stockpiles of low-enriched uranium (LEU) and heavy water that Trump had banned it from exporting. Guess which action will prompt denunciations in Washington of a deal violation?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAs yet, Iran has not violated any provisions of the deal (except in a minuscule and quickly corrected way in 2016). It will take some time before production of LEU and heavy water will exceed the JCPOA-imposed stockpile limits of 300kg and 130 metric tonnes, respectively. When the limits are exceeded, it will be by marginal degrees calculated not to raise alarms or trigger snapback sanctions by other JCPOA members. This will be a fine line for Iran to walk, however, because the British, French and Germans have insisted that no deal violation can be tolerated.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eWhat future the JCPOA?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003eTehran will argue that when Trump last week removed the waiver that allowed it to export heavy water to Oman and trade LEU with Russia, it became forced to stockpile production above the limits. Not really. The obvious alternative is to stop excess production, which had no purpose other than to keep manufacturing lines running. But while legally unsustainable, Iran’s move will be judged as fair in the global court of public opinion.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eRouhani has been facing domestic pressure to respond much more forcefully, by ratcheting up enrichment levels beyond 3.67%, resuming enrichment in former military tunnels at Fordow, restricting cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency or itself withdrawing from the deal entirely. Foreign Minister Javad Zarif even threatened in various meetings in New York last month that Iran might be forced to pull out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty altogether.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eRouhani did warn, however, that in two months’ time, Iran would cease to abide by further restrictions unless the remaining participants to the deal eased restrictions on banking and oil exports. Iran has made such threats before, so it may be a bluff, but there is a real possibility the JCPOA will be dead by mid-July. If Iran steps up enrichment levels or resumes construction of the plutonium-producing Arak reactor, European snapback sanctions will be inevitable.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe least of our troubles\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003eRouhani’s announcement of incremental measures in the nuclear field is surely not the nation’s only response. It stands to reason that Iran would be planning asymmetrical moves in other realms. If ‘leaked’ intelligence reports are to be believed, Iran began moving ballistic missiles in boats in its waters, and is planning attacks against US interests in Syria and elsewhere by its proxies. There is reason to doubt the magnitude of these \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-administration-inflated-iran-intelligence-us-officials-say\u0022\u003ereported moves\u003c/a\u003e. And it is odd that in response the US Central Command asked for the deployment of an aircraft carrier task force that was already on its way.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIt is notable that the carrier deployment was announced by National Security Advisor John Bolton, who has never been shy about expressing his eagerness for military action against Iran. Many observers worry that toppling the Islamic regime is the ultimate purpose of the pressure campaign against Iran. Was it so long ago that Bolton and others misused intelligence to embroil the US in a disastrous war in the Middle East? The Iraq War extinguished nearly half a million lives, cost the US Treasury over a trillion dollars, spawned the Islamic State and other terrorist groups, and left the region in turmoil. A generation earlier, false reports of North Vietnamese naval action in the Gulf of Tonkin triggered another disastrous US military intervention.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe survivability of the JCPOA, worrisome as it is, thus might not be the most troubling issue regarding Iran. Its leaders will need wisdom and patience not to succumb to US provocations.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022Body\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003e \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_rqtir9qan02fpuxZZAnzA"))});
\u003cp class=\"Body\"\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIran’s announcement that it will build up stockpiles of low-enriched uranium and heavy water is likely to be denounced by Washington as a violation of the nuclear deal. But it might not be the most troubling issue regarding Iran, warns Mark Fitzpatrick.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e
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