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\u003cp\u003eThe study applies scenario analysis – with scenarios set in the early 2020s – to generate force requirements, and assesses the ability of NATO’s European member states to meet these requirements based on data from the IISS Military Balance Plus online database. The cost of closing the identified capability shortfalls through equipment acquisition has been estimated.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe objective of the study is to enable informed policy dialogue both in Europe and in a transatlantic setting. The study explicitly does not intend to predict future conflicts nor the intentions of any of the actors involved. Neither does it wish to prescribe a certain path of action to be pursued by European NATO governments.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe first scenario examined deals with the protection of the global sea lines of communication (SLOCs). In this scenario, the United States has withdrawn from NATO and has also abandoned its role of providing global maritime presence and protection, not just for its own national interest but also as an international public good. It thus falls to European countries to achieve and sustain a stable maritime-security environment in European waters and beyond, to enable the free flow of international maritime trade, and to protect global maritime infrastructure. The IISS assesses that European NATO members would have to invest between US$94 billion and US$110bn to fill the capability gaps generated by this scenario.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe second scenario deals with the defence of European NATO territory against a state-level military attack. In this scenario, tensions between Russia and NATO members Lithuania and Poland escalate into war after the US has left NATO. This war results in the Russian occupation of Lithuania and some Polish territory seized by Russia. Invoking Article V, the European members of NATO direct the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) to plan \u003cem\u003eOperation Eastern Shield\u003c/em\u003e to reassure Estonia, Latvia and Poland, and other front-line NATO member states, by deterring further Russian aggression. European NATO also prepares and assembles forces for \u003cem\u003eOperation Eastern Storm\u003c/em\u003e, a military operation to restore Polish and Lithuanian government control over their territories.\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_tnY4xs9fUerKD2aY6BoHQ"))});
The IISS has conducted an independent open-source high-level assessment of how the defence of Europe, and of European interests, would look if the United States had left NATO and did not contribute militarily.
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