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\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003eO\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003en the one-year anniversary of the United States\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003ewithdrawal\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003e\u0026nbsp;from the landmark nuclear deal, Iran\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/world/rouhani-announces-reduction-not-withdrawal-from-iran-nuclear-deal/2019/05/08/21a989a2-e0e9-45c9-beee-d3c3edd7acdd_video.html?utm_term=.45fa0a5a4cdf\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003eannounced\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003e\u0026nbsp;that it would cease to implement some of its commitments under the accord. Because the US has banned Iran from exporting heavy water and low enriched uranium (LEU), Iran will henceforth stop adhering to the accord\u0026rsquo;s limits on accumulating these materials: 130 metric tons in the case of heavy water and 300 kilograms of LEU (202.8 kg of uranium content). In addition, unless the other parties to the deal restore Iran\u0026rsquo;s lost oil sales and access to the international banking system, after 60 days it will cease implementing other provisions, by exceeding the 3.67 percent limit on uranium enrichment and returning to the pre-deal design of its mothballed Arak heavy water reactor.\u003c/span\u003e\n\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003eIn reaction to a series of escalatory measures by the US government, Iranian leaders faced tough choices: how to most effectively respond to increasing \u0026ldquo;\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/04/21/no-more-waivers-united-states-will-try-force-iranian-oil-exports-zero/\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003emaximum pressure\u003c/a\u003e\u0026rdquo; from Washington. But the question is why now and in these specific ways?\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003eThere is an\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/02/12/the-next-u-s-president-should-rejoin-the-iran-nuclear-deal/\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003eargument\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003e\u0026nbsp;floating around among\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/world/europe/europe-trump-iran.html\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003esupporters\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003e\u0026nbsp;of the deal in the United States and\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/09/world/europe/europe-trump-iran.html\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003eEurope\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003ethat Iran should\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.politico.eu/article/iran-tries-to-run-out-the-clock-as-trump-bears-down-donald-trump-bejamin-netanyahu\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003econtinue\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003e\u0026nbsp;its\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2018/11/iran-patience\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003estrategic patience\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003e\u0026nbsp;and practice restraint and compliance with the deal. The underlying rationale is twofold: first, to basically wait out the Trump administration in hopes that if a Democrat wins in 2020, the United States could rejoin the nuclear deal. Second, despite the fact that Iran is not reaping economic windfalls, there are some diplomatic benefits in remaining in the agreement. But if Iran violates the deal, Europeans would have to impose further sanctions, and diplomatic relations would deteriorate. This argument fails to appreciate the domestic pressure the Iranian government is facing. In reality,\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan class=\u0022pull-quote has-quote\u0022 data-pullquote=\u0022Tehran’s calculations do not revolve around U.S. politics. These days, domestic political considerations are paramount.\u0022 style=\u0022color: ;\u0022\u003eTehran\u0026rsquo;s calculations do not revolve around US politics. These days, domestic political considerations are paramount.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003eSince the Trump administration withdrew from the deal last year, there has been an intense political debate in Tehran regarding compliance with the deal. The remaining parties to the agreement\u0026mdash;the Europeans, Russia, and China\u0026mdash;have repeatedly emphasized their commitment to the agreement, and according to reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency, Tehran has adhered to the deal.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003eAs reimposed sanctions intensified, and hopes faded away that the remaining parties could help make up the losses, Iran\u0026rsquo;s government has been pushed not only by the hard-line voices but more recently even by the reformists to take action and break the stalemate. In addition to abandoning certain nuclear constraints, options have included taking measures to disrupt oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz or utilizing proxy forces to threaten US forces or allies in Iraq and Syria.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003eEven within the nuclear realm, Iranian officials have debated several options, including a full withdrawal from the deal and even leaving the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, mainly advocated by the more hard-line voices but also\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.dw.com/fa-ir/iran/a-48517463\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003eraised\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;as policy options for debate in Supreme National Security Council.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003eBut to keep the diplomatic door open, Iran chose to act without immediately violating the nuclear deal, a move that would have angered the European Union and most likely led to reinstating European sanctions. At current rates of accumulation, the LEU and heavy water stockpiles will not exceed the limits for at least a couple of months. This way the Iranian government has displayed\u0026nbsp;\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.farsnews.com/news/13980222000514/%D9%85%D8%B7%D9%87%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%82-%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AF-%DA%A9%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B6%D8%B9-%D8%B6%D8%B9%D9%81\u0022 style=\u0022color: #;\u0022\u003estrength\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;without burning bridges.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #333333;\u0022\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe full piece can be read at \u003ca href=\u0022https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/05/13/iranians-will-tolerate-hardship-but-not-capitulation-rouhani-trump-bolton-sanctions-eu-instex/\u0022\u003eForeign Policy\u003c/a\u003e.\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_KqTvOfTNkiqpoByZSfeA"))});
Tehran\u0027s recent nuclear policy announcements were driven by the inescapable constraints of domestic politics, writes Mahsa Rouhi.
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