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Iran: The Case Against War  智库博客
时间:2019-07-31   作者: Jonathan Stevenson;Steven Simon  来源:International Institute for Strategic Studies (United Kingdom)
\u003cp style=\u0022color: #333333; background-color: #ffffff; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-left: 0px; text-align: left;\u0022\u003eThere is no plausible reason for the United States to go to war with Iran, although the Trump administration appears to be preparing to do so. In mid-May, the Pentagon presented the White House with plans for deploying up to 120,000 troops to the Middle East to respond to Iranian attacks on US forces or the acceleration of Iran’s nuclear weapons program.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022color: #333333; background-color: #ffffff; margin: 0px 0px 15px; text-align: left;\u0022\u003eTo be sure, the Iranian government is guilty of genuine transgressions against American interests and values. It backs Syria’s brutal dictator, Bashar al-Assad. It undermines the security of Israel by organizing and sustaining Shia militias in Syria, supporting the Palestinian extremist group Hamas, and arming the Lebanese Shia militia Hezbollah. By serving as Iran’s proxy on Israel’s border, Hezbollah exposes Lebanon—long a fragile state—to the risk of Israeli retaliation. Iran has also supported Shia militias in Iraq that in theory answer to the Iraqi prime minister through a special commission, but in practice are outside the national military command structure, which compromises the cohesion and authority of the Iraqi state.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022color: #333333; background-color: #ffffff; margin: 0px 0px 15px; text-align: left;\u0022\u003eWith money and weapons, Iran backs the Houthis, an insurrectionist movement in Yemen that has ousted the elected government and attacked the territory of its Saudi patrons. It has allegedly tried to stir Shia unrest in Sunni-ruled Bahrain, where the US has an important naval base, and in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia. It is developing ballistic missiles that could threaten its neighbors and—especially if they are capable of carrying nuclear warheads—could provoke an arms race in the region. Iranian authorities detain and jail foreigners, including Americans, on fabricated charges. And the Iranian government oppresses its own people by coercing them into obeying strict religious rules, limiting their political choices, and abusing and imprisoning journalists.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022color: #333333; background-color: #ffffff; margin: 0px 0px 15px; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eRead the full review at \u003ca href=\u0022https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2019/08/15/iran-case-against-war/\u0022\u003eThe New York Review of Books\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_C61xRz5oDkadXwOj4RNaOA"))});
The most recent crisis, like others involving Iran, was made mainly in the United States, Steven Simon and Jonathan Stevenson write.\u0026nbsp;

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