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\u003cp\u003eS\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: #; color: #;\u0022\u003eaturday\u0026rsquo;s\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca class=\u0022u-\u0022 style=\u0022color: #; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid #;\u0022 href=\u0022https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/16/saudi-arabia-oil-attacks-everything-you-need-to-know\u0022 data-link-name=\u0022in body link\u0022\u003eattacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities at Abqaiq\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022background-color: #; color: #;\u0022\u003e\u0026nbsp;represent a potential tipping point in regional and international relations. Although many questions remain, and Iran has officially denied responsibility, the likelihood of its involvement at some level is high. Regardless of the precise details, there is already a range of serious geopolitical implications to consider.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022color: #; background-color: #; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; padding: 0px;\u0022\u003eIf Tehran is responsible, this clearly demonstrates that Iran\u0026rsquo;s asymmetric military capabilities can pose a serious threat to the strategic interests of the west and its partners in the region. Oil-supply vulnerabilities are no longer limited to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for exports and a repeated flashpoint over the years. After all, with this strike on a land-based facility, Saudi oil production reportedly\u0026nbsp;\u003ca class=\u0022u-\u0022 style=\u0022color: #; background: transparent; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid #;\u0022 href=\u0022https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-49703143\u0022 data-link-name=\u0022in body link\u0022\u003edropped\u003c/a\u003e\u0026nbsp;by about 50%.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022color: #; background-color: #; margin: 0px 0px 1rem; padding: 0px;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #; background-color: #;\u0022\u003eThese dramatic effects align with the current Iranian strategy of signalling to the US and its allies that there can be no such thing as a limited strike against Iran, as some contemplate in Washington: in such a scenario, Iran would retaliate, inflict significant cost and potentially provoke an all-out war. The attacks could also represent a further following-through on the promise that if\u0026nbsp;\u003c/span\u003e\u003ca class=\u0022u-\u0022 style=\u0022color: #; background: #; border-bottom: 0.0625rem solid #;\u0022 href=\u0022https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran\u0022 data-link-name=\u0022auto-linked-tag\u0022 data-component=\u0022auto-linked-tag\u0022\u003eIran\u003c/a\u003e\u003cspan style=\u0022color: #; background-color: #;\u0022\u003e\u0026nbsp;is prevented from exporting its own oil, it will disrupt the global oil market in return. It initially restricted this activity to the Strait of Hormuz. The Abqaiq attacks go way beyond this, however, embodying a determination to show that the Saudis will not be allowed to plug the gap left by Iranian oil that has been taken off the market as a result of sanctions.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022width: 680px; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 0px;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThis article is published in full in \u003ca style=\u0022color: #; background-color: transparent;\u0022 href=\u0022http://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3024405/south-korea-and-japan-must-break-cycle-hate-and-move-regions-good\u0022\u003e\u003c/a\u003e\u003ca href=\u0022https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/18/iran-saudi-attack-nuclear-deal-us\u0022\u003eThe Guardian\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_078CF8VuRUG9DFbuRwCQ3w"))});
Biting sanctions after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal could make Iran desperate enough to try to provoke Trump\u003cbr /\u003e\n\u003cdiv\u003e \u003c/div\u003e
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