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\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOn 12 September, the United Kingdom government confirmed that it had selected the Babcock-led consortium with its \u003cem\u003eArrowhead\u003c/em\u003e 140 design as the preferred bidder to build the Royal Navy’s new Type-31 general-purpose frigate. But, in some ways, the story really starts now, as Babcock will face a tight timeline and an even tighter price-cap per ship to deliver what the navy wants. Arguments are also likely to continue over whether the navy itself has got the balance right between affordability and capability in its Type-31 concept.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe \u003cem\u003eArrowhead\u003c/em\u003e 140, based on the Danish Navy’s \u003cem\u003eIver Huitfeldt\u003c/em\u003e-class frigate, was significantly bigger at some 6,000-tonnes displacement than the other two contenders.\u003cem\u003e \u003c/em\u003eThe aim is to finalise a contract by the end of 2019, cut steel for the first time in 2021 and have a first ship ‘in the water’ by 2023 – about the time the first of the ageing Type-23 frigates is due to decommission.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThere have been hints that the original overall budget ceiling of £1.25 billion (US$1.62bn) for five ships has been loosened slightly. But those connected with the programme still insist that the aim is for the ‘average production cost’ for each ship to be £250 million (US$324m).\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFrigate or corvette?\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe genus of the Type-31 programme was the UK’s 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR), when it was concluded that the Royal Navy would not be able to afford enough of the planned high-end Type-26 frigates to replace the 13 Type-23s on a one-for-one basis. The idea was for a more affordable, and potentially exportable, general-purpose design. The Type-31 would fulfil the navy’s requirement for lower-end forward presence and patrolling missions, leaving a smaller number of the Type-26s to concentrate on carrier task-force missions and supporting and protecting the UK’s nuclear deterrent.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe tension between capability and quantity is an enduring and universal one. In recent decades, the Royal Navy leadership has focused very much on maintaining a high-end force. The 2015 SDSR was essentially an enforced shift in that approach.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSince then, the argument has continued over whether the Type-31s will be real frigates or ‘glorified corvettes’. The French Navy, facing the same dilemma of not being to afford all of the FREMM frigates it originally wanted, has also opted for a new medium design: the \u003cem\u003eFrégate de taille intermédiaire\u003c/em\u003e (FTI). However, it has struck a different balance. The FTI budget is essentially double that of the Type-31, but for the same number of hulls.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eRoyal Navy officers insist that the Type-31s will be proper frigates ‘fit for purpose’. Those connected with the programme remain tight-lipped on what the weapons fit will be, but the prevailing suggestion is that it will comprise a single 57 mm medium gun and two single 40 mm guns, as well as up to 24 MBDA \u003cem\u003eSea Ceptor \u003c/em\u003elocal-area\u003cem\u003e \u003c/em\u003eair-defence missiles.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSuch a range of capabilities would certainly suit the vessel regarding the kind of maritime-security threats it is designed to address, including those akin to recent challenges in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The gun armament in particular appears well-chosen in terms of countering swarming fast inshore attack-craft threat, as potentially does \u003cem\u003eSea Ceptor \u003c/em\u003eagainst such craft and any short-range anti-ship-missile threat they might pose. But the vessels look potentially very lightly armed for their size.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022background: white; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe glaring apparent omission is an anti-ship-missile capability, just at a time when such weapons are proliferating in regions where Type-31s could be forward based. Indeed, the first of the US Navy’s Littoral Combat Ships to be fitted with Naval Strike Missiles has just deployed.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 style=\u0022background: white; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eRoom for growth\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe Royal Navy has just issued a requirement for an interim surface-to-surface weapon to fill a capability gap until the arrival of the Anglo-French Future Cruise/Anti-Ship Weapon in the 2030s. Either could find its way onto the Type-31.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eClearly, the navy was attracted by the relatively large size of the \u003cem\u003eArrowhead\u003c/em\u003e 140 design because it provides space for future weapons growth and the ability to carry a significant embarked combat force, although similar ‘spiral development’ ambitions for the Type-45s have so far borne little fruit due to a lack of funding. The Type-31 design also has a large flight deck and hangar, plus flexible mission bays amidships (for boats) and below the flight deck. Significantly, these appear to make the \u003cem\u003eArrowhead\u003c/em\u003e 140 suited to hosting future remote systems; this may in the end be the key to the ship’s future capability potential. The Royal Navy has significant ambitions in remote systems, but again will need to balance priorities and funding between capabilities and platform numbers.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOf course, the Type-31 is also meant to be exportable, as a way of sustaining and even re-growing the UK’s shipbuilding capacity, and Babcock emphasises the modularity and adaptability of the \u003cem\u003eArrowhead\u003c/em\u003e design. The international frigate market is certainly vibrant, not least in the Indo-Pacific region, but while the Pacific is a big ocean, what the appetite for a 6,000-tonne design with global endurance might be is another matter. Furthermore, the kinds of states that might be in the market for frigates of this scale are those who would most likely want to build the ships themselves.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe other potential growth area, and opportunity for UK shipbuilding, is in Royal Navy destroyer and frigate numbers. That ambition was explicitly stated from the outset in the SDSR. However, unless something changes, there seems little chance of hull numbers (currently standing at 19) increasing until the late 2020s. They may even dip lower before that. Nevertheless, there is a possibility – and indeed the ambition – to continue building beyond five Type-31 hulls, perhaps with a force goal of, say, 25 destroyers and frigates in total sometime in 2030s. But that really would require a careful balancing of priorities and budgets.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp style=\u0022text-align: left;\u0022\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThis analysis originally featured on the IISS Military Balance+, the online database that provides indispensable information and analysis for users in government, the armed forces, the private sector, academia, the media and more. Customise, view, compare and download data instantly, anywhere, anytime. The Military Balance+ includes data on naval forces worldwide, including surface and sub-surface vessels by type and associated weapons fits.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_XWFGSsIbI0KMoNKIfDMZvA"))});
The new Type-31 frigate could help the Royal Navy rebuild its warship numbers, but it will still be a difficult balancing act between capability and cost, writes Nick Childs. Can the design meet its other goal of finding an export market?
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