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\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eEnding weeks of speculation, US President Donald Trump confirmed last week that he would host Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for a meeting at the White House on 13 November, two years after Erdogan’s last visit to Washington. The Turkish president has stated that he plans to travel to Washington, despite widespread Turkish speculation prior to Trump’s announcement that Erdogan would not make the trip due to a US House of Representatives resolution, passed by an overwhelming majority, to recognise the Ottoman Empire’s mass killings of Armenians during the First World War as a genocide. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eJustifying his decision to host Erdogan, Trump explained that in a telephone conversation with the Turkish leader, Erdogan had informed him that Turkey had captured numerous ISIS fighters that reportedly escaped during the Turkish military operation in Syrian Kurdish areas. He also said that he discussed with Erdogan other issues including the situation on the Turkish–Syrian border, the eradication of terrorism and the ending of hostilities with the Kurds.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe visit comes at a very sensitive time in the US–Turkey relationship, in the aftermath of Trump’s decision to withdraw US troops from northeastern Syria, followed by the launch of the Turkish military’s \u003c/span\u003e\u003cem\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOperation Peace Spring\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/em\u003e\u003cspan\u003e into northern Syria, which caused a tremendous political backlash in Washington. In the aftermath of the launch of the Turkish operation, Trump imposed modest sanctions on Turkey, warning that if it were to go too deep into Syrian territory or act violently towards Syrian Kurds, he would ‘obliterate’ Turkey’s economy, imposing severe sanctions. In a letter to Erdogan, which was leaked to the media, Trump advised his Turkish counterpart: ‘don’t be a tough guy, don’t be a fool’, stressing that Turkey should act in a humane way and not allow the slaughter of thousands of Kurds. Later, the president lifted sanctions as a ceasefire agreement was reached between the US and Turkey, aimed to create a ‘safe zone’ along the Turkish–Syrian border, free of Kurdish forces.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eBacklash in Washington\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOn 16 October, the US House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly to condemn the president’s decision to withdraw US troops from Syria, calling on Turkey to cease its military operation in Syria. Criticism of Trump’s handling of the Turkish invasion came not only from Congress and the media, but also from within the administration, as can be seen in a leaked internal memo written by William Roebuck, a senior American diplomat in northern Syria, who suggested the administration had not tried hard enough to deter Turkey from invading northern Syria.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOn 29 October, the House of Representatives passed a resolution by a striking majority (403 vs 16) to impose a series of sanctions on Turkey over its brutal assault on the Kurds, dealing its second bipartisan rebuke to Trump’s policy in one month. The sanctions approved by the House are still awaiting a Senate vote, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has stated that he does not intend to bring up a vote on the measure anytime soon. Nevertheless, Republican senators are pressuring the White House and McConnell to allow a vote on sanctions, as they believe Turkey should also be punished for its purchase of the Russian S-400 air defence system, with steps that go beyond Trump’s cancellation of the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets to Turkey.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eMoreover, in a motion that has enraged President Erdogan, the House, on 30 October, voted overwhelmingly (405 vs 11) in favour of a resolution recognising the mass killing of Armenians by Ottoman Turks during the First World War as a genocide. It was the first time in decades that the full House had considered such a measure. In the past, attempts had been thwarted by concerns that such a vote could damage relations with Turkey, a NATO ally. The vote was welcomed by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and by several Democratic presidential candidates, including former vice president Joe Biden. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAn agenda full of sticking points\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eClearly, Erdogan will arrive to a different Washington than the one he left in late 2017. There are too many sticking points on the current US–Turkey bilateral agenda and it is questionable whether they can all be resolved, especially considering the wide criticism of Turkey in Washington. On the eve of the visit, a group of 17 House members (15 Democrats and two Republicans), led by Eliot Engel, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, sent a letter to President Trump urging him to rescind his invitation to Erdogan. Many in Washington also vividly recall that Erdogan’s bodyguards attacked people protesting his visit outside the residence of the Turkish ambassador; they were permitted to return to Turkey, accompanying Erdogan, without facing charges, under diplomatic protocols. In this context, Michael McCaul, Ranking Member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, has stated that it is imperative that all representatives of the Turkish government respect US laws during the visit, notably the right to peacefully protest. The American people, he stressed, will not tolerate visitors disregarding their laws.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSyria will no doubt be at the centre of the Trump–Erdogan meeting. Turkey launched its cross-border offensive on 9 October, with the aim of removing the Kurdish YPG from that area. Assisted by Syrian rebels (namely the Syrian National Army, or SNA), the Turkish military seized control of a 120-km swathe of territory and then reached a deal with the US to remove Kurdish fighters out of that area within five days.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAfter the deal with the US, Turkey reached an agreement with Russia under which the YPG was to withdraw to a depth of 30km along the entirety of the northeastern Syrian border. Under the two deals, Turkey halted its offensive in return for the withdrawal of YPG fighters. Turkey and Russia have so far held two joint patrols near the border to monitor the situation.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAhead of his trip to Washington, Erdogan has criticised the US for not implementing the agreement and also said he would hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, as YPG forces are still operating in the area. The situation on the ground continues to be unstable. Fighting continues in an area southeast of the Syrian border town of Ras al-Ain, but US officials have argued that there is a dispute as to whether this area is covered in either of the agreements with the US or Russia.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eThe US continues to be concerned over possible Turkish war crimes during the military operation. Ahead of the visit, Trump’s National Security Advisor, \u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003eRobert O\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003e’\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003eBrien\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003e, stated that some of the reports from northeastern Syria were very disturbing, adding that Washington is watching and monitoring the situation closely. ‘There is no place for genocide and ethnic cleansing in the 21st century,’ he added. Time will tell whether Turkey will carry out its stated intention to relocate large numbers of the Syrian refugees it has been hosting into the border zone it has created inside northeastern Syria. Forcible population transfers are forbidden under the Fourth Geneva Convention. For its part, Turkey has denied reports that its forces have engaged in such activities, yet it bears responsibility for the actions widely believed to be carried out by the SNA, which is operating in close coordination with the Turkish military.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eAnother related topic that will feature prominently in the meeting is the continued fight against ISIS, including tracking down ISIS detainees who escaped from Kurdish prisons during the Turkish assault. In the aftermath of the successful US Special Forces operation on 26 October in Idlib province, which led to the elimination of the ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, Trump attaches great importance to being able to claim victory over ISIS, and is expecting Turkey to focus on this issue. Turkey has reportedly captured 287 people affiliated with ISIS (including family members) since launching its operation last month.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eTurkish Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu stated on 8 November that just 72 hours later his country would begin sending Islamic State militants to their home countries, emphasising that Turkey ‘is not a hotel’ for ISIS detainees. This is all part of an effort to pressure reluctant European countries to take back citizens recruited by the militant group. Trump has welcomed the Turkish effort and seems pleased that Erdogan is pressuring Europeans to act on this issue. \u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eTurkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 air missile-defence systems continues to be an irritant in the relationship. While the Trump administration \u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003ecancell\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003eed the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, additional sanctions are under consideration by the administration and Congress. US Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper, made clear that there is no way back for Turkey to the F-35 project without leaving the S-400 deal. National Security Advisor O’Brien has warned that the US is ready to impose sanctions if Turkey does not abandon its S-400s. He noted that Trump plans to convey this message to Erdogan during the 13 November visit, adding that the administration is very upset over Ankara’s purchase of S-400s, and that there is no place in NATO for S-400s and other significant Russian military purchases. Congress is ready to proceed on sanctions under the Countering America\u0027s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, and the Senate may take up the issue in the immediate aftermath of Erdogan’s visit.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003ch3 class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eErdogan’s need to project strength\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/h3\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eFrom a Turkish perspective, a recent public opinion poll, conducted by Kadir Has University in Istanbul, indicated that 82% of the Turkish public sees the US as Turkey’s ‘enemy number one’. Nevertheless, Erdogan wishes to project domestically and internationally the image of good relations with the US and President Trump. The photo-op at the White House will surely help in this regard. Facing pressure and scrutiny from the US Congress and the media, Erdogan needs his relationship with Trump to work well, as the president seems to be more attentive than other actors in Washington to Turkish concerns.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp class=\u0022BodyA\u0022\u003e\u003cspan\u003eErdogan will raise with Trump his expectations for a full implementation of the US–Turkey ceasefire agreement, focusing on the removal of Kurdish fighters from the Turkish-established safe zone in northern Syria. He will also ask the president for assurances that sanctions will not be imposed on Turkey. Finally, following up on a visit by US Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, to Turkey in September, Erdogan is expected to push for increased trade between the US and Turkey. In 2018, overall bilateral trade reached US$20.5 billion. While reaching the goal of US$100bn, previously set by Trump and Erdogan, seems very ambitious, the Turkish president will ask Trump to encourage greater US investments in Turkey, while deepening and broadening bilateral trade. Trump has reportedly offered Erdogan a package of inducements for better relations between the two countries, including a trade deal, if Turkey adheres to the 17 October ceasefire. Much will depend though on Erdogan’s ability to convince the administration that he is committed to not crossing US red lines.\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","className":"richtext reading--content font-secondary"}), document.getElementById("react_cAS2EywR0a5rMi0uGzrog"))});
Can Erdogan convince Trump that he is committed to not crossing US red lines? It remains questionable whether all the sticking points on the US\u0026ndash;Turkey agenda can be resolved, writes Dan Arbell.
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