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Even after two years of President Donald Trump's pitched assault on trade agreements, and his imposition of wide-ranging tariffs, trade is not a top subject of public debate. According to the Pew Research Center, global trade ranks lowest among major policy priorities for Americans in 2019.
So it comes as no surprise that trade is at best a third-tier subject for nearly all the Democrats who are vying for the 2020 presidential nomination. Instead, health care, college tuition, inequality, and taxes lead their agendas. Yet the next president's stance on trade will serve as a foundation for America's relationship with other nations and its leadership of the global economy, if a post-Trump era commences in 2021. For that reason, it's useful to know where Democratic candidates stand on crucial trade issues, even though these are early days in the presidential campaign.
The table below summarizes the announced positions (if any) of 15 declared candidates and 8 undeclared candidates (including Howard Schultz, a possible Independent candidate) on the following issues: the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), China (Section 301 tariffs), Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum, and sundry other trade matters. The table draws on secondary information sources such as interviews, news articles, and social media. Based on these reports, candidates are categorized as pro-trade, anti-trade, or mixed or no position on trade.
Nine candidates generally support free trade and a rules-based system. While they haven't publicly come out for or against USMCA, in the past they supported the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). At the same time, most members of this group oppose Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum and give only qualified support to the president's Section 301 tariffs on imports from China.
Six candidates are generally anti-trade—meaning they are generally opposed to new trade agreements and support new tariffs. Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren strongly oppose free trade pacts such as TPP and USMCA, support Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, and are intensely critical of China. Apart from USMCA, their positions do not differ greatly from President Trump. It is worth noting that protectionist themes contributed to Sanders's popularity during the 2016 primary campaign.
The remaining eight candidates have mixed or no positions on trade policy. Among these, Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) most closely resembles a generally pro-trade candidate. She opposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, wanted to exclude electronics from tariffs on imports from China, but also opposed TPP. Other members of this group oppose tariffs that directly hurt their state's economy but also oppose broad free trade agreements.
Summing up, Democratic contenders offer widely different perspectives on US trade policy, and thus on US engagement with the world in a post-Trump era. While not a major debating point, the clash of views on trade parallels the clash between moderate and progressive Democrats on high-profile issues like health care and taxes. In the realm of trade policy, the choice for standard-bearer among Democrats will be just as consequential as the choice between Trump and his Democratic opponent in 2020.
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