| 摘要 |
Climate change amplifies existing risks and vulnerabilities in a globalised world. New risks are also emerging from complex
cross-sectoral and multi-dimensional interactions that aggregate gradually, and sometimes emerge abruptly. Recent
examples of links between crop damage in Russia, international food prices and political instability in North Africa, as well as
impact chains from drought, migration, civil unrest and war in the Middle East, demonstrate how climate-induced risks
outside Europe can cascade and threaten Europe. CASCADES strives to understand the conditions under which climate
risks propagate beyond their geographical and temporal location in ways that may affect European stability and cohesion. It
does so via a broad 360° risk assessment and deeper thematic analyses of trade, value chain, financial and political
connections between Europe and the rest of the world. CASCADES ambition is to identify the policy leverage points that
can help the EU to adapt and respond to such cascading climate risks. CASCADES integrates a wide range of established
and innovative methodologies many of which have not been seriously applied to adaptation questions before ranging
from biophysical climate impact modelling, economic modelling of trade and financial networks, and data integration
methods, to qualitative approaches including hotspot case study analysis original social science research and serious
games. CASCADES combines leading expertise in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, international trade
and commodity flows, foreign policy and security, and finance and business, with deep knowledge and proven experience of
co-creating with and influencing stakeholders from private sectors, public policy and civil society. CASCADES will
provide knowledge and tools to support policy and decision-making processes, thus helping Europe to strategically navigate
a sustainable and resilient path through a rapidly changing, interconnected world.
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