| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP5209 |
| DP5209 Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War | |
| Alan M. Taylor; Reuven Glick | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-09-23 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We explore the international spillovers from fiscal policy shocks via trade in Europe. A fiscal expansion stimulates domestic activity, which leads to more foreign exports and, hence, higher foreign output. To quantify this, we combine a panel VAR model in government spending, net taxes and GDP with a panel trade model. On average, a public spending increase equal to 1% of GDP implies 2.3% more foreign exports over the first two years. The corresponding figure for an equal-size net tax reduction is 0.6%. Both estimates are statistically significant. As far as the effect on foreign activity is concerned, a 1% of GDP spending increase (net tax reduction) in Germany on average raises GDP of trading partners by 0.23% (0.06%) over the first two years. These figures are likely to form lower bounds for the actual effects and suggest that it may be worthwhile to further investigate the benefits from coordinated fiscal expansions (contractions) in response to European-wide cyclical downturns (upswings) |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Fiscal shocks Trade spillovers European union Coordination Impulse responses |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp5209 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/534083 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Alan M. Taylor,Reuven Glick. DP5209 Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War. 2005. |
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