| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP10197 |
| DP10197 How did we get to where we are now? Reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics | |
| Michael R. Wickens | |
| 发表日期 | 2014-10-12 |
| 出版年 | 2014 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This lecture is about how best to evaluate economic theories in macroeconomics and finance, and the lessons that can be learned from the past use and misuse of evidence. It is argued that all macro/finance models are `false' so should not be judged solely on the realism of their assumptions. The role of theory is to explain the data, They should therefore be judged by their ability to do this. Data mining will often improve the statistical properties of a model but it does not improve economic understanding. These propositions are illustrated with examples from the last fifty years of macro and financial econometrics |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics |
| 关键词 | Theory and evidence in economics Dsge modelling Time series modelling Asset price modelling |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp10197 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/539030 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michael R. Wickens. DP10197 How did we get to where we are now? Reflections on 50 years of macroeconomic and financial econometrics. 2014. |
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