| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w11596 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 11596 |
| Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry | |
| Valerie A. Ramey; Daniel J. Vine | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-09-12 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper documents the dramatic changes in volatility that occurred in the U.S. auto industry in the early 1980s. Namely, output volatility declined significantly, the covariance of inventory investment and sales became much more negative, and adjustments to output, which in earlier decades stemmed primarily from plants hiring and laying off workers, were more often accomplished with changes in average hours per worker after the mid 1980s. Building on the work of Blanchard (1983), we show how all of these changes could have stemmed from one underlying factor%u2014a decline in the persistence of motor vehicle sales. We use both industry-level data as well as micro data on production schedules from 103 assembly plants in the United States and Canada to document the developments in the early 1980s. We then use the original Holt, Modigliani, Muth and Simon (1960) linear quadratic inventory model to show how a decline in the persistence of sales leads to all of the changes noted above, including the propensity to use intensive margins of adjustment over extensive labor margins, even in the absence of technological change. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Consumption and Investment |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11596 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569241 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Valerie A. Ramey,Daniel J. Vine. Declining Volatility in the U.S. Automobile Industry. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w11596.pdf（342KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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