| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w11869 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 11869 |
| Are Countercyclical Fiscal Policies Counterproductive? | |
| David B. Gordon; Eric M. Leeper | |
| 发表日期 | 2005-12-19 |
| 出版年 | 2005 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Economists generally believe that countercyclical fiscal policies have stabilizing effects that work through automatic stabilizers and discretionary actions. Analyses underlying this conventional wisdom focus on intratemporal margins: how employment and personal income respond in the short run to changes in government expenditures and taxes. But in economic downturns, countercyclical policies increase government indebtedness, raising future debt service obligations. These new expenditure commitments must be financed by some mix of higher taxes, lower spending, or higher money growth in the future. Expectations of how future policies will adjust change current savings rates and the efficacy of countercyclical policies. It is thus possible for responses to expected future policies to exacerbate and prolong recessions. This paper highlights these expectations effects. Connecting the theory to U.S. data we find: (1) through this expectations channel, countercyclical policies may create a business cycle when there would be no cycle in the absence of countercyclical policies; (2) nontrivial fractions of variation in investment and velocity can be explained by variation in macro policies alone---without any nonpolicy sources of fluctuation; and (3) persistence in key macro variables can arise solely from expectations of policy. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics ; Business Cycles ; Fiscal Policy |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w11869 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/569520 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | David B. Gordon,Eric M. Leeper. Are Countercyclical Fiscal Policies Counterproductive?. 2005. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 资源类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| w11869.pdf（339KB） | 智库出版物 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | ||
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