| 来源类型 | Working Paper |
| 规范类型 | 报告 |
| DOI | 10.3386/w19103 |
| 来源ID | Working Paper 19103 |
| Wall Street vs. Main Street: An Evaluation of Probabilities | |
| Robin L. Lumsdaine; Rogier J.D. Potter van Loon | |
| 发表日期 | 2013-06-06 |
| 出版年 | 2013 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper challenges recent conventional wisdom of a divide between Main Street (the average American consumer) and Wall Street (financial market participants). The views of survey respondents regarding the likelihood of stock index returns exceeding specific thresholds are compared to market views indicated by index options with strikes at analogous thresholds. The econometric specification explicitly addresses some important impediments to using elicited probabilities from survey data. We confirm that Main Street views track Wall Street views, although the association is not one-for one. We find a closer association for those demonstrating a better understanding of the laws of probability. |
| 主题 | Econometrics ; Estimation Methods ; Microeconomics ; Economics of Information ; Financial Economics ; Financial Markets |
| URL | https://www.nber.org/papers/w19103 |
| 来源智库 | National Bureau of Economic Research (United States) |
| 引用统计 | |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/576778 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Robin L. Lumsdaine,Rogier J.D. Potter van Loon. Wall Street vs. Main Street: An Evaluation of Probabilities. 2013. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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