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External Players Might Affect the Conflict's Outcome

• The financial and military aid flowing into Syria from external state actors has the potential to perpetuate the civil war in Syria and ignite larger regional hostilities between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims.
• There is an asymmetry of interests among external actors: Those supporting the Assad regime see the conflict's stakes in starker terms than do supporters of the opposition.
• External influence in the Syrian conflict would be decisive only if the United States significantly increased the scope of its support to the opposition or Iran or Russia significantly ratcheted back their support for Assad.

Internal Players Are Expected to Have Less Effect

• None of the "fence sitters" inside Syria are likely to tip the balance of the conflict.
• Increased jihadi participation within the opposition will result in less support from most external actors and from "fence sitters" inside Syria.