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The U.S. Army May Have Changing Roles in Southeast Asia

• The current threat environment in Southeast Asia is largely benign: There is very little risk of a major interstate war in the region. Many governments have benefited from a high degree of domestic stability afforded by sustained economic growth. Most substate terrorist and insurgent groups have been largely contained, and none constitutes more than a local challenge. And the main regional hegemon, China, poses no meaningful external threat.
• Under current conditions, the Army's role will focus on supporting defense reform and modernization, helping nations in the region address nonconventional transnational threats, and instituting appropriate means to balance increased Chinese penetration.
• In the near term, if conditions remain similar to what they are now, these areas of focus will not change.
• Should the general outlook deteriorate — perhaps as a result of a severe economic slowdown — the geopolitical environment will become far less certain and more prone to crisis. Governments that have derived legitimacy from rapid development would suffer from a loss of grassroots support. State-to-state rivalries would become more acute, especially with regard to the South China Sea disputes. And natural catastrophes would take on greater security relevance because of tighter fiscal constraints for underwriting disaster preparedness and response.
• To meet these challenges, the United States will need to adopt an agile strategy that is thin in physical presence but broad in programmatic execution.