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Robust Decision Making Gives Policymakers Insight About an Uncertain Future

• Under historical climate conditions and access to new anticipated supplies in 2020, EID's current plan is 100 percent reliable in the western portion of its service area and 94 percent reliable in the eastern portion of its service area.
• Evaluating the EID system across a wide range of climate, growth, and supply availability futures shows that reliability for both regions would be substantially degraded for many plausible futures.
• Vulnerability analysis determined that the western portion of EID's service area is vulnerable primarily to the availability of new supplies from a particular project, regardless of climate and growth rates. For the east, vulnerable outcomes occur even with the new supplies, and they are associated with conditions that are only slightly drier than those in the historical record.
• Increasing urban water use efficiency and expanding surface storage is shown to mitigate some of the vulnerabilities due to climate change and new supply uncertainty.