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Certain Strategies Can Be Applied Universally

• Experience is a key way to avoid surprises.
• Reducing the number of variables also reduces the complexity and size of the solution.
• A measured response preserves future options.
• Teamwork is essential, even for professions perceived as relying on individual actors.

Different Groups Prepare for and Respond to the Unexpected in Different Ways

• Professionals in the most-contrived environments, such as athletic fields or theatrical stages, can plan reactions for nearly any possible contingency.
• Those in moderately chaotic environments like operating rooms rely partially on checklists and rules, but also employ some basic response frameworks.
• In highly chaotic environments, such as behind enemy lines, planning against specific surprise events is almost impossible. Instead, practitioners exercise a general-purpose framework.

Available Response Time Plays a Role

• Tacticians, who must generally react within seconds or minutes, often must first overcome fear and anxiety. A typical protocol is to control panic, buy time, then revert to fundamentals learned in training.
• Strategists, who have days or weeks to react, generally face immediate feelings of anger and an impulse to overreact. A similar process for coping is employed: control emotions, take some initial enabling actions, quickly assemble key staffers, and disseminate a coherent longer-term response.

Surprises Generated by Humans Are Typically More Complex

• When people are at the root of a surprise (as opposed to, say, the environment), the system becomes more complex and the potential outcomes become more unpredictable.
• The biggest surprises often come from third-party actors, not direct adversaries.