G2TT
来源类型Research Reports
规范类型报告
ISBN9780833080103
来源IDRR-223-CMEPP
Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt
Jeffrey Martini; Stephen M. Worman
发表日期2013
出版年2013
页码16
语种英语
结论

Political Geography Plays a Role

  • Similar to the United States, Egypt has its own "red state-blue state" dynamics.
  • Islamists run strongest in the governorates of Upper Egypt, the outlying Western governorates, and North Sinai.
  • Non-Islamist parties have polled well in Cairo and its immediate environs, South Sinai, as well as in the more sparsely populated governorates abutting the Red Sea.
  • The Delta has been contested territory, with Islamists underperforming their national averages but still doing well in absolute terms.

Islamist Support Appears to Be Declining

  • Islamists achieved their high-water mark in the initial ballots after the January 25 Revolution, but the gap between them and their non-Islamist rivals has narrowed since then.
  • Although non-Islamists announced a boycott of the upcoming election, their influence is not weakening. Further, non-Islamist parties could benefit from extended Islamist leadership, if that leadership proves a disappointment to voters.
  • Should non-Islamists reconsider their boycott and contest the 2013 parliamentary elections, they are likely to improve their performance from the 2011-2012 elections.
摘要
  • The United States should avoid targeting assistance programming in ways that advantage one political party over another. This would only undermine the recipient's credibility and invite allegations that they are operating as a "fifth column" of the West.
主题Democracy ; Egypt ; International Diplomacy ; Political Reform Movements ; Religious Fundamentalism
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR223.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/107578
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Jeffrey Martini,Stephen M. Worman. Voting Patterns in Post-Mubarak Egypt. 2013.
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