G2TT
来源类型Research Reports
规范类型报告
ISBN9780833087775
来源IDRR-768-RC
Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn
David C. Gompert; Hans Binnendijk; Bonny Lin
发表日期2014
出版年2014
页码328
语种英语
结论

Strategic Blunders Can Happen When Leaders Rely on Defective Cognitive Models of Reality and Have No One to Correct Them.

  • Strategic blunders can result from faulty intuition, egotism, arrogance, hubris, grand but flawed strategic ideas, underestimating the enemy and the difficulties and duration of conflict, overconfidence in war plans, ignoring what could go wrong, stifling debate, shunning independent advice, and penalizing dissent.
  • These conditions are especially dangerous when combined with excessive risk taking based on an overestimation of one's ability to control events.

The Key to Bridging the Gap Between a Defective Model and Objective Reality Is Information, Amply Supplied and Well Used.

  • Decisionmakers may be more receptive to information that supports rather than threatens their beliefs, preconceptions, and models.
  • Institutions close to decisionmakers can be drawn into the same subjective perception of reality.
  • Government institutions are not dependable safeguards against strategic mistakes.
  • Improvements are needed in how leaders and institutions use information so that better cognitive models will enable them to make better choices.
摘要
  • Form a strategic advisory body within the National Security Council with access to all intelligence and the best possible analytic capabilities. This body would be obligated to provide the President and the rest of the National Security Council with impartial analysis of underlying beliefs, objectives, assumptions, estimates of the adversary, prospects for success, options, contingencies, and risks. The process would be covered by executive privilege, but the body's output would be a matter of historical and eventually public record.
  • The strategic advisory body should set and insist on the highest standards of analytic objectivity and rigor. The entity would be responsible for reviewing the integrity of the analysis conducted by the institutions responsible for staffing the decisionmaker (such as the State Department, the Department of Defense, and the National Security Council).
  • The independent analysis performed for and by the strategic advisory body should make use of proven enhancements in analyst-computer teaming capabilities and methods.
  • The presidents of the United States and China should form the sort of relationship that goes well beyond occasional summits and having a hotline. The two need a facility for communication and a rapport.
  • Institutional connections between the United States and China should go beyond the existing U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue with the goal of mining information from institutional links that can correct errors in models of reality and prevent blunders.
  • Intellectual connectivity should continue to expand, especially as it involves Chinese and American strategic communities.
主题Assumption Based Planning ; China ; Decisionmaking ; Intelligence Community ; International Diplomacy ; United States ; Warfare and Military Operations
URLhttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR768.html
来源智库RAND Corporation (United States)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/107735
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
David C. Gompert,Hans Binnendijk,Bonny Lin. Blinders, Blunders, and Wars: What America and China Can Learn. 2014.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 资源类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
x1495316215370.jpg(7KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
RAND_RR768.pdf(1807KB)智库出版物 限制开放CC BY-NC-SA浏览
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[David C. Gompert]的文章
[Hans Binnendijk]的文章
[Bonny Lin]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[David C. Gompert]的文章
[Hans Binnendijk]的文章
[Bonny Lin]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[David C. Gompert]的文章
[Hans Binnendijk]的文章
[Bonny Lin]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: x1495316215370.jpg
格式: JPEG
文件名: RAND_RR768.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。